Graduate Program of Economics, Catholic Univeristy of Brasilia, Brasilia, DF, Brazil
Graduate Program of Economics, Catholic Univeristy of Brasilia, Brasilia, DF, Brazil.
Tob Control. 2022 Sep;31(Suppl 2):s65-s73. doi: 10.1136/tobaccocontrol-2021-056822. Epub 2021 Sep 15.
There has been an intense debate in the Brazilian National Congress on how to reform the country's tax system on consumption. This paper investigates the effects of the tax reform under the Constitutional Amendment Bill 45/2019 on cigarette prices, consumption and tax collection. The reform will introduce a new goods and services tax (GST) and tobacco excise tax (TET).
The micro data from the National Household Sample Survey (PNAD) of 2008 and the National Health Survey (PNS) of 2013 are inputs in the simulation in order to determine the smoking behaviour and consumer responses to price changes as accurately as possible across the different Brazilian states. We developed three scenarios for the tobacco tax reform and their effects on cigarette prices, smoking behaviour and tax collection. We also estimate the size of the illicit cigarette market by Brazilian state and simulate the impacts of a 10% reduction in its market share.
Overall, we found that a GST of 27% and a TET of either 51%, 56% or specific 3.89 BRL per pack would lead to considerably higher cigarette prices, lower cigarette consumption and, above all, an increase of cigarette tax collection between 8% and 27% depending on the state. A discretionary 10% reduction in the illicit market would add about 8.5% of extra tax collection per year to the country.
The simulated scenarios demonstrated that, to keep the cigarette prices at least at the same level as those in the current tax scheme, TET should be no less than 77.85% of the retail price. This means that any politically feasible tax reform should result in higher cigarette prices and a reduction in cigarette consumption. Considering the nationwide effect, in all scenarios, the total increase in tobacco tax revenue is around 8.5% or 1.5 billion BRL per year. This extra revenue is highly desirable in an environment of chronic fiscal imbalance and the COVID-19 pandemic crisis.
巴西国会就如何改革该国消费税制度展开了激烈辩论。本文研究了 2019 年 45 号宪法修正案（Constitutional Amendment Bill 45/2019）下的税收改革对香烟价格、消费和税收的影响。改革将引入新的商品和服务税（GST）和烟草消费税（TET）。
2008 年全国家庭抽样调查（PNAD）和 2013 年全国健康调查（PNS）的微观数据被输入模拟中，以尽可能准确地确定不同巴西州的吸烟行为和消费者对价格变化的反应。我们为烟草税改革制定了三个方案，并模拟了它们对香烟价格、吸烟行为和税收的影响。我们还按巴西州估算了非法香烟市场的规模，并模拟了其市场份额减少 10%的影响。
总体而言，我们发现 GST 为 27%，TET 为 51%、56%或每包特定的 3.89 雷亚尔，将导致香烟价格大幅上涨，香烟消费下降，最重要的是，根据各州情况，香烟税收增加 8%至 27%。非法市场减少 10%的任意性将使该国每年额外增加约 8.5%的税收。
模拟方案表明，为使香烟价格至少保持在现行税收制度的水平，TET 应不低于零售价的 77.85%。这意味着任何在政治上可行的税收改革都应导致香烟价格上涨和香烟消费减少。考虑到全国范围内的影响，在所有方案中，烟草税收总收入增加约 8.5%，即每年增加 15 亿雷亚尔。在慢性财政失衡和 COVID-19 大流行危机的环境下，这笔额外收入是非常可取的。
