Marques Roberta, Duarte Juliano Lessa Pinto, Duarte Adriane da Fonseca, Krüger Rodrigo Ferreira, Silva da Cunha Uemmerson, Osorio-Olvera Luis, Contreras-Díaz Rusby G, Jiménez-García Daniel
Departamento de Saúde Coletiva, Faculdade de Ciências Médicas, Universidade Estadual de Campinas, Campinas 13083-970, Brazil.
Laboratório de Ecologia de Parasitos e Vetores, Departamento de Microbiologia e Parasitologia, Universidade Federal de Pelotas, Pelotas 96010-610, Brazil.
Insects. 2021 Sep 15;12(9):831. doi: 10.3390/insects12090831.
species (Sciaridae) are responsible for significant economic losses in greenhouse production (e.g., mushrooms, strawberries, and nurseries). The current distributions of species in the genus are restricted to cold-climate countries. Three species of are of particular economic concern in view of their ability to invade areas in countries across the Northern Hemisphere. We used ecological niche models to determine the potential for range expansion under future climate change scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) in the distribution of these three species of . Stable environmental suitability under climate change was a dominant theme in these species; however, potential range increases were noted in key countries (e.g., USA, Brazil, and China). Our results illustrate the potential for range expansion in these species in the Southern Hemisphere, including some of the highest greenhouse production areas in the world.
眼蕈蚊科物种给温室生产（如蘑菇、草莓和苗圃）造成了重大经济损失。该属物种目前的分布仅限于气候寒冷的国家。鉴于这三个物种有能力侵入北半球各国的一些地区，它们尤其令人担忧。我们使用生态位模型来确定在未来气候变化情景（代表性浓度路径4.5和代表性浓度路径8.5）下，这三个眼蕈蚊科物种分布范围扩大的可能性。气候变化下稳定的环境适宜性是这些物种的一个主要特征；然而，在一些主要国家（如美国、巴西和中国）发现其潜在分布范围有所增加。我们的结果表明，这些物种在南半球包括世界上一些最大的温室生产地区有分布范围扩大的可能性。
