School of Finance, Shandong University of Finance and Economics, Jinan, China.
Front Public Health. 2021 Sep 17;9:741525. doi: 10.3389/fpubh.2021.741525. eCollection 2021.
The outbreak of COVID-19 pandemic has caused profound consequences on world economy. In order to explore the long-term impact of the pandemic on economic growth and the effects of different policy responses, this paper combines economic theory with epidemiological model to construct an interdisciplinary model, in which labor supply is dynamically constrained by pandemic conditions. Analysis of model equilibrium suggests that outbreaks of infectious disease reduce labor supply and negatively affect economic output. The accumulation of health capital can suppress the spread of disease and improve the recovery rate of infected individuals, which will alleviate the labor supply constraint caused by the pandemic and lead to an increase in output and consumption. The model is then calibrated to Chinese economy. The simulation results imply that government's public health policy can enhance the role of health capital in promoting economic growth. But the marginal effect of certain policies is diminishing. Therefore, the government needs to balance pandemic prevention and control costs and marginal benefits when formulating public health policies. When the pandemic is under control, the resumption of production is feasible and the economic stimulus package could lead to economic recovery.
新冠疫情大流行对世界经济造成了深远影响。为了探究疫情对经济增长的长期影响，以及不同政策应对的效果，本文将经济学理论与传染病模型相结合，构建了一个跨学科模型，其中劳动力供给受到疫情状况的动态约束。模型均衡分析表明，传染病的爆发会减少劳动力供给，对经济产出产生负面影响。健康资本的积累可以抑制疾病的传播，提高感染者的康复率，从而缓解疫情带来的劳动力供给约束，增加产出和消费。本文进一步对中国经济进行了模型校准。模拟结果表明，政府的公共卫生政策可以增强健康资本在促进经济增长方面的作用。但是，某些政策的边际效应正在递减。因此，政府在制定公共卫生政策时需要平衡疫情防控成本和边际收益。当疫情得到控制时，恢复生产是可行的，经济刺激方案可能会导致经济复苏。
