Reassessing the role of climate change in the Tupi expansion (South America, 5000-500 BP).

The expansion of forest farmers across tropical lowland South America during the Late Holocene has long been connected to climate change. The more humid conditions established during the Late Holocene are assumed to have driven the expansion of forests, which would have facilitated the dispersal of cultures that practised agroforestry. The Tupi, a language family of widespread distribution in South America, occupies a central place in the debate. Not only are they one of the largest families in the continent, but their expansion from an Amazonian homeland has long been hypothesized to have followed forested environments wherever they settled. Here, we assess that hypothesis using a simulation approach. We employ equation-based and cellular automaton models, simulating demic-diffusion processes under two different scenarios: a null model in which all land cells can be equally settled, and an alternative model in which non-forested cells cannot be settled or delay the expansion. We show that including land cover as a constraint to movement results in a better approximation of the Tupi expansion as reconstructed by archaeology and linguistics.