Complex Systems Laboratory, University of Girona, C/. Maria Aurèlia Capmany 61, 17003 Girona, Spain
Catalan Institution for Research and Advanced Studies (ICREA), C/. Lluís Companys 23, 08010 Barcelona, Spain.
J R Soc Interface. 2018 Nov 21;15(148):20180597. doi: 10.1098/rsif.2018.0597.
Using a database of early farming sites in Scandinavia, we estimate that the spread rate of the Neolithic was in the range 0.44-0.66 km yr This is substantially slower (by about 50%) than the rate in continental Europe. We interpret this result in the framework of a new mathematical model that includes horizontal cultural transmission (acculturation), vertical cultural transmission (interbreeding) and demic diffusion (reproduction and dispersal of farmers). To parametrize the model, we estimate reproduction rates of early farmers using archaeological data (sum-calibrated probabilities for the dates of early Neolithic Scandinavian sites) and use them in a wave-of-advance model for the first time. Comparing the model with the archaeological data, we find that the percentage of the spread rate due to cultural diffusion is below 50% (except for very extreme parameter values, and even for them it is below 54%). This strongly suggests that the spread of the Neolithic in Scandinavia was driven mainly by demic diffusion. This conclusion, obtained from archaeological data, agrees qualitatively with the implications of ancient genetic data, but the latter are yet too few in Scandinavia to produce any quantitative percentage for the spread rate due to cultural diffusion. We also find that, on average, fewer than eight hunter-gatherers were incorporated in the Neolithic communities by each group of 10 pioneering farmers, via horizontal and/or vertical cultural transmission.
利用斯堪的纳维亚早期农业遗址数据库，我们估计新石器时代的传播速度在 0.44-0.66 公里/年之间。这比欧洲大陆的速度慢了约 50%。我们在一个新的数学模型框架内解释这一结果，该模型包括水平文化传播（文化适应）、垂直文化传播（杂交）和人口扩散（农民的繁殖和扩散）。为了参数化该模型，我们使用考古数据（新石器时代斯堪的纳维亚遗址日期的总和校准概率）来估计早期农民的繁殖率，并首次将其用于前进波模型。将模型与考古数据进行比较，我们发现文化扩散对传播速度的贡献百分比低于 50%（除非参数值非常极端，即使在这种情况下，它也低于 54%）。这强烈表明，新石器时代在斯堪的纳维亚的传播主要是由人口扩散驱动的。这个从考古数据中得出的结论，在定性上与古代遗传数据的含义一致，但由于斯堪的纳维亚的遗传数据太少，无法对文化扩散导致的传播速度产生任何定量百分比。我们还发现，平均而言，每 10 名开拓性农民中，只有不到 8 名狩猎采集者通过水平和/或垂直文化传播融入新石器时代社区。
