Larjavaara Markku, Lu Xiancheng, Chen Xia, Vastaranta Mikko
Institute of Ecology and Key Laboratory for Earth Surface Processes of the Ministry of Education, College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking University, Beijing, China.
School of Forest Sciences, University of Eastern Finland, P.O. Box 111, 80101, Joensuu, Finland.
Carbon Balance Manag. 2021 Oct 12;16(1):31. doi: 10.1186/s13021-021-00194-3.
Understanding how warming influence above-ground biomass in the world's forests is necessary for quantifying future global carbon budgets. A climate-driven decrease in future carbon stocks could dangerously strengthen climate change. Empirical methods for studying the temperature response of forests have important limitations, and modelling is needed to provide another perspective. Here we evaluate the impact of rising air temperature on the future above-ground biomass of old-growth forests using a model that explains well the observed current variation in the above-ground biomass over the humid lowland areas of the world based on monthly air temperature.
Applying this model to the monthly air temperature data for 1970-2000 and monthly air temperature projections for 2081-2100, we found that the above-ground biomass of old-growth forests is expected to decrease everywhere in the humid lowland areas except boreal regions. The temperature-driven decrease is estimated at 41% in the tropics and at 29% globally.
Our findings suggest that rising temperatures impact the above-ground biomass of old-growth forests dramatically. However, this impact could be mitigated by fertilization effects of increasing carbon dioxide concentration in the atmosphere and nitrogen deposition.
了解气候变暖如何影响全球森林的地上生物量对于量化未来全球碳预算至关重要。未来碳储量因气候驱动而减少可能会危险地加剧气候变化。研究森林温度响应的实证方法存在重要局限性，需要通过建模来提供另一种视角。在此，我们使用一个基于月气温能很好地解释全球湿润低地地区当前地上生物量观测变化的模型，评估气温上升对原始森林未来地上生物量的影响。
将该模型应用于1970 - 2000年的月气温数据以及2081 - 2100年的月气温预测数据，我们发现，除北方地区外，湿润低地地区各处的原始森林地上生物量预计都会减少。在热带地区，温度驱动的减少估计为41%，全球范围内为29%。
我们的研究结果表明，气温上升对原始森林的地上生物量有显著影响。然而，大气中二氧化碳浓度增加和氮沉降的施肥效应可能会减轻这种影响。
