Earth Sciences Department, University of Firenze, Via La Pira, 4, 50121, Firenze, Italy.
Department of Civil Protection, Presidency of the Council of Ministers, Via Vitorchiano 2, 00189, Rome, Italy.
Sci Rep. 2021 Oct 13;11(1):20302. doi: 10.1038/s41598-021-99874-w.
The concept of climate change has grown in recent decades, influencing the scientific community to conduct research on meteorological parameters and their variabilities. Research on global warming, as well as on its possible economic and environmental consequences, has spread over the last 20 years. Diffused changes in trends have been stated by several authors throughout the world, with different developments observed depending on the continent. Following a period of approximately 40 days of almost continuous rain that occurred from October to November 2019 across the Italian territory and caused several hazards (e.g., floods and landslides), a relevant question for decision-makers and civil protection actors emerged regarding the relative frequencies of given rainfall events in the Warning Hazard Zones (WHZs) of Italy. The derived products of this work could answer this question for both weather and hydrogeological operators thanks to the frequency and spatio-temporal distribution analyses conducted on 10-year daily rainfall data over the entire Italian territory. This work aspires to be an additional tool used to analyse events that have occurred, providing further information for a better understanding of the probability of occurrence and distribution of future events.
气候变化的概念在最近几十年中得到了发展，影响了科学界对气象参数及其变化的研究。过去 20 年来，有关全球变暖及其可能带来的经济和环境后果的研究已经普及。世界各地的多位作者都指出了趋势的扩散变化，观察到的发展情况因大陆而异。2019 年 10 月至 11 月，意大利各地经历了约 40 天的持续降雨，引发了洪水和山体滑坡等多种灾害，这引发了决策者和民防部门的一个重要问题，即意大利预警危险区（WHZ）内特定降雨事件的相对频率。这项工作的衍生产品可以通过对意大利全境 10 年的每日降雨数据进行频率和时空分布分析，为气象和水文地质运营商回答这个问题。这项工作旨在成为分析已经发生的事件的附加工具，为更好地理解未来事件的发生概率和分布提供更多信息。
