Department of Sociology, Copenhagen University, Copenhagen, Denmark.
Centre for Demographic Research, Université Catholique de Louvain, Louvain, Belgium.
PLoS One. 2021 Oct 21;16(10):e0258196. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0258196. eCollection 2021.
Climate change is likely to worsen the food security situation through its impact on food production, which may indirectly affect fertility behaviour. This study examines the direct and indirect effects of climate change (e.g., temperature and precipitation) via the production of major crops, as well as their short- and long-term effects on the total fertility rate (TFR) in Bangladesh. We used structural equation modelling (SEM) to perform path analysis and distinguish the direct influence of climate change on fertility and its indirect influence on fertility through food security. We also applied the error correction model (ECM) to analyze the time-series data on temperature and precipitation, crop production and fertility rate of Bangladesh from 1966 to 2015. The results show that maximum temperature has a direct effect and indirect negative effect-via crop production-on TFR, while crop production has a direct positive effect and indirect negative effect-via infant mortality-on TFR. In the short term, TFR responds negatively to the maximum temperature but positively in the long term. The effect of rainfall on TFR is found to be direct, positive, but mainly short-term. Although indicators of economic development play an important part in the fertility decline in Bangladesh, some climate change parameters and crop production are non-negligible factors.
气候变化可能通过对粮食生产的影响而使粮食安全形势恶化，这可能会间接影响生育行为。本研究通过主要农作物的产量来检验气候变化（如温度和降水）的直接和间接影响，以及它们对孟加拉国总生育率（TFR）的短期和长期影响。我们使用结构方程模型（SEM）进行路径分析，区分气候变化对生育率的直接影响及其通过粮食安全对生育率的间接影响。我们还应用误差修正模型（ECM）来分析 1966 年至 2015 年期间孟加拉国的温度和降水、农作物产量和生育率的时间序列数据。结果表明，最高温度对 TFR 有直接的负向影响，也通过农作物产量对 TFR 产生间接的负向影响，而农作物产量对 TFR 有直接的正向影响，也通过婴儿死亡率对 TFR 产生间接的负向影响。短期内，TFR 对最高温度的反应是负向的，但长期来看则是正向的。降雨量对 TFR 的影响是直接的、正向的，但主要是短期的。尽管经济发展指标在孟加拉国生育率下降中发挥了重要作用，但一些气候变化参数和农作物产量也是不可忽视的因素。
