Nature. 2018 Jun;558(7709):219-222. doi: 10.1038/s41586-018-0179-y. Epub 2018 Jun 13.
The Antarctic Ice Sheet is an important indicator of climate change and driver of sea-level rise. Here we combine satellite observations of its changing volume, flow and gravitational attraction with modelling of its surface mass balance to show that it lost 2,720 ± 1,390 billion tonnes of ice between 1992 and 2017, which corresponds to an increase in mean sea level of 7.6 ± 3.9 millimetres (errors are one standard deviation). Over this period, ocean-driven melting has caused rates of ice loss from West Antarctica to increase from 53 ± 29 billion to 159 ± 26 billion tonnes per year; ice-shelf collapse has increased the rate of ice loss from the Antarctic Peninsula from 7 ± 13 billion to 33 ± 16 billion tonnes per year. We find large variations in and among model estimates of surface mass balance and glacial isostatic adjustment for East Antarctica, with its average rate of mass gain over the period 1992-2017 (5 ± 46 billion tonnes per year) being the least certain.
南极冰盖是气候变化的重要指标和海平面上升的驱动因素。在这里，我们结合卫星观测到的冰盖体积、流动和引力变化，以及对其表面质量平衡的建模，表明在 1992 年至 2017 年间，南极冰盖损失了 2720 ± 1390 亿公吨的冰，这对应于海平面平均上升了 7.6 ± 3.9 毫米（误差为一个标准差）。在此期间，海洋驱动的融化导致来自西南极洲的冰损失率从 53 ± 29 亿公吨/年增加到 159 ± 26 亿公吨/年；冰架崩解导致来自南极半岛的冰损失率从 7 ± 13 亿公吨/年增加到 33 ± 16 亿公吨/年。我们发现，对东南极洲的表面质量平衡和冰川均衡调整的模型估计存在很大差异和不确定性，其在 1992-2017 年期间的平均质量增益率（每年 5 ± 46 亿公吨）最不确定。
