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利用各国当前卫生支出占国内生产总值的百分比(CHE/GDP)分析新冠病毒疾病的繁殖数R

Analysis of Reproduction Number R of COVID-19 Using Current Health Expenditure as Gross Domestic Product Percentage (CHE/GDP) across Countries.

作者信息

Oshinubi Kayode, Rachdi Mustapha, Demongeot Jacques

机构信息

Laboratory AGEIS EA 7407, Team Tools for e-Gnosis Medical & Labcom CNRS/UGA/OrangeLabs Telecom4Health, Faculty of Medicine, University Grenoble Alpes (UGA), 38700 La Tronche, France.

出版信息

Healthcare (Basel). 2021 Sep 22;9(10):1247. doi: 10.3390/healthcare9101247.

Abstract

(1) Background: Impact and severity of coronavirus pandemic on health infrastructure vary across countries. We examine the role percentage health expenditure plays in various countries in terms of their preparedness and see how countries improved their public health policy in the first and second wave of the coronavirus pandemic; (2) Methods: We considered the infectious period during the first and second wave of 195 countries with their current health expenditure as gross domestic product percentage (CHE/GDP). An exponential model was used to calculate the slope of the regression line while the ARIMA model was used to calculate the initial autocorrelation slope and also to forecast new cases for both waves. The relationship between epidemiologic and CHE/GDP data was used for processing ordinary least square multivariate modeling and classifying countries into different groups using PC analysis, K-means and hierarchical clustering; (3) Results: Results show that some countries with high CHE/GDP improved their public health strategy against virus during the second wave of the pandemic; (4) Conclusions: Results revealed that countries who spend more on health infrastructure improved in the tackling of the pandemic in the second wave as they were worst hit in the first wave. This research will help countries to decide on how to increase their CHE/GDP in order to properly tackle other pandemic waves of the present COVID-19 outbreak and future diseases that may occur. We are also opening up a debate on the crucial role socio-economic determinants play during the exponential phase of the pandemic modelling.

摘要

(1) 背景:冠状病毒大流行对各国卫生基础设施的影响和严重程度各不相同。我们研究了卫生支出占比在各国应对疫情准备方面所起的作用,并观察各国在冠状病毒大流行的第一波和第二波中如何改进其公共卫生政策;(2) 方法:我们考虑了195个国家在第一波和第二波疫情期间的传染期,并将其当前卫生支出作为国内生产总值的百分比(CHE/GDP)。使用指数模型计算回归线的斜率,同时使用自回归积分移动平均模型(ARIMA)计算初始自相关斜率,并预测两波疫情的新增病例数。利用流行病学数据与CHE/GDP数据之间的关系进行普通最小二乘多元建模,并通过主成分分析、K均值聚类和层次聚类将各国分为不同组;(3) 结果:结果表明,一些CHE/GDP较高的国家在大流行的第二波期间改进了其针对病毒的公共卫生策略;(4) 结论:结果显示,在卫生基础设施方面支出较多的国家在第二波疫情应对中有所改善,因为它们在第一波中受影响最严重。这项研究将帮助各国决定如何提高其CHE/GDP,以便妥善应对当前新冠疫情的其他疫情波以及未来可能出现的疾病。我们还开启了一场关于社会经济决定因素在大流行建模指数阶段所起关键作用的辩论。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/9860/8535930/050aee3d4f2b/healthcare-09-01247-g001a.jpg

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