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不同年龄组的区域间流动与台湾台北都会区的 COVID-19 传播有关。

Interregional mobility in different age groups is associated with COVID-19 transmission in the Taipei metropolitan area, Taiwan.

机构信息

Institute of Population Health Sciences, National Health Research Institutes, 35 Keyan Road, Zhunan, 350, Miaoli County, Taiwan.

Department of Geography, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan.

出版信息

Sci Rep. 2023 Oct 12;13(1):17285. doi: 10.1038/s41598-023-44474-z.

Abstract

Before vaccines were introduced, mobility restriction was one of the primary control measures in the early stage of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. Because different age groups face disproportionate health risks, differences in their mobility changes affect the effectiveness of pandemic control measures. This study aimed to investigate the relationship between multiscale mobility patterns in different age groups and COVID-19 transmission before and after control measures implementation. Data on daily confirmed case numbers, anonymized mobile phone data, and 38 socioeconomic factors were used to construct negative binomial regression models of these relationships in the Taipei metropolitan area in May 2021. To avoid overfitting, the socioeconomic factor dimensions were reduced by principal component analysis. The results showed that inter-district mobility was a greater promoter of COVID-19 transmission than was intra-district mobility (coefficients: pre-alert, 0.52 and 0.43; post-alert, 0.41 and 0.36, respectively). Moreover, both the inter-district mobility of people aged 15-59 and ≥ 60 years were significantly related to the number of confirmed cases (coefficients: pre-alert, 0.82 and 1.05; post-alert, 0.48 and 0.66, respectively). The results can help agencies worldwide formulate public health responses to emerging infectious diseases.

摘要

在引入疫苗之前,出行限制是 2019 年冠状病毒病(COVID-19)大流行早期的主要控制措施之一。由于不同年龄组面临不成比例的健康风险,其出行变化的差异会影响大流行控制措施的效果。本研究旨在调查 COVID-19 传播之前和实施控制措施之后不同年龄组的多尺度出行模式与 COVID-19 传播之间的关系。使用每日确诊病例数、匿名移动电话数据和 38 个社会经济因素的数据,构建了 2021 年 5 月在台北都会区的这些关系的负二项式回归模型。为了避免过度拟合,通过主成分分析减少了社会经济因素维度。结果表明,区际流动比区内流动更能促进 COVID-19 的传播(系数:预警前分别为 0.52 和 0.43;预警后分别为 0.41 和 0.36)。此外,15-59 岁和≥60 岁人群的区际流动与确诊病例数均呈显著相关(系数:预警前分别为 0.82 和 1.05;预警后分别为 0.48 和 0.66)。研究结果可以帮助全球各机构制定应对新发传染病的公共卫生对策。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/154e/10570333/64fb876df946/41598_2023_44474_Fig1_HTML.jpg

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