Gordon Daniel V
Department of Economics, University of Calgary, Canada & Department Safety, Economics and Planning, University of Stavanger, Norway.
Mar Policy. 2021 Aug;130:104556. doi: 10.1016/j.marpol.2021.104556. Epub 2021 May 6.
The coronavirus will have serious consequences for the fishing industry. The purpose here is to simulate price and revenue outcomes for Canadian lobster and snow crab markets under alternative policy shocks due to the coronavirus. Predictions are based on three policy scenarios representing upper and lower bounds on the range of possible landings and economic outcomes for the period 2019-2021. Based on past research, demand equations for both the lobster and snow crab markets are used to empirically simulate price projections. The results for snow crab are startling with predicted serious declines in price and generated revenue, particularly for Québec and Newfoundland and Labrador (NL). Compared to 2018, projections suggest a decline in average revenue for 2021 of - 18% Gulf, - 32% Maritimes, - 53% Québec, and - 57% NL. The outcome for lobster is not as bleak, projections showing a 21% decline in revenue for 2020 but with recovery in 2021.
冠状病毒将对渔业产生严重影响。本文旨在模拟由于冠状病毒导致的替代性政策冲击下，加拿大龙虾和雪蟹市场的价格和收益情况。预测基于三种政策情景，这些情景代表了2019年至2021年期间可能的上岸量和经济结果的上下限。根据以往的研究，利用龙虾和雪蟹市场的需求方程对价格预测进行实证模拟。雪蟹的结果令人震惊，预计价格和收益将大幅下降，尤其是魁北克省以及纽芬兰和拉布拉多省（NL）。与2018年相比，预测显示2021年海湾地区平均收益下降18%，海事省份下降32%，魁北克省下降53%，纽芬兰和拉布拉多省下降57%。龙虾的情况没有那么黯淡，预测显示2020年收益下降21%，但2021年将有所回升。
