Price and revenue projections under alternative policy shocks due to the coronavirus: Canadian lobster and snow crab.

The coronavirus will have serious consequences for the fishing industry. The purpose here is to simulate price and revenue outcomes for Canadian lobster and snow crab markets under alternative policy shocks due to the coronavirus. Predictions are based on three policy scenarios representing upper and lower bounds on the range of possible landings and economic outcomes for the period 2019-2021. Based on past research, demand equations for both the lobster and snow crab markets are used to empirically simulate price projections. The results for snow crab are startling with predicted serious declines in price and generated revenue, particularly for Québec and Newfoundland and Labrador (NL). Compared to 2018, projections suggest a decline in average revenue for 2021 of - 18% Gulf, - 32% Maritimes, - 53% Québec, and - 57% NL. The outcome for lobster is not as bleak, projections showing a 21% decline in revenue for 2020 but with recovery in 2021.