School of Economics, College of Business and Economics, University of Johannesburg, Johannesburg, South Africa.
Environ Sci Pollut Res Int. 2022 Mar;29(13):19352-19377. doi: 10.1007/s11356-021-17193-z. Epub 2021 Oct 30.
The debate over the role international trade plays in determining environmental outcomes has considerably generated more heat than light. Theoretical work has been successful in identifying a series of hypotheses linking openness to trade and environmental quality, but the empirical verification of these hypotheses has seriously lagged. This study revisits the dynamic relationship between trade openness and environmental quality in South Africa using time series data over the period 1960-2020. The recently developed novel dynamic autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) simulation framework has been used. The outcomes of the analysis indicate that (i) trade openness deteriorates environmental quality in the long run, although it is environmentally friendly in the short run; (ii) the scale effect increases CO emissions, whereas the technique effect contributes to lower it, thus validating the presence of an environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) hypothesis; (iii) energy consumption, foreign direct investment, and industrial value-added contribute to environmental deterioration; (iv) technological innovation improves environmental quality; (v) the pollution haven hypothesis (PHH) exists; and (vi) InSE, InTE, InOPEN, InEC, InFDI, InTECH, and InIGDP Granger-cause InCO in the medium, long, and short run suggesting that these variables are important to influence CO emissions. In light of our empirical evidence, this paper suggests that the international teamwork to lessen carbon emissions is immensely critical to solve the growing trans-boundary environmental decay and other associated spillover consequences.
国际贸易在决定环境结果方面所起作用的争论产生的往往是更多的热量而非光明。理论工作成功地确定了一系列将贸易开放度与环境质量联系起来的假说,但这些假说的经验验证却严重滞后。本研究使用 1960-2020 年期间的时间序列数据,重新考察了南非贸易开放度与环境质量之间的动态关系。最近开发的新颖的动态自回归分布滞后(ARDL)模拟框架已被应用。分析结果表明:(i)贸易开放度从长期来看会恶化环境质量,尽管从短期来看对环境有利;(ii)规模效应增加了 CO 排放,而技术效应有助于降低 CO 排放,从而验证了环境库兹涅茨曲线(EKC)假说的存在;(iii)能源消耗、外国直接投资和工业增加值都对环境恶化有贡献;(iv)技术创新提高了环境质量;(v)存在污染避难所假说(PHH);(vi)在中、长、短期,InSE、InTE、InOPEN、InEC、InFDI、InTECH 和 InIGDP 格兰杰因果关系导致 InCO,表明这些变量对影响 CO 排放很重要。根据我们的经验证据,本文认为,国际合作以减少碳排放对于解决日益严重的跨境环境恶化和其他相关外溢后果至关重要。