The Value of Predicting Human Epidermal Growth Factor Receptor 2 Status in Adenocarcinoma of the Esophagogastric Junction on CT-Based Radiomics Nomogram.

PURPOSE

We developed and validated a CT-based radiomics nomogram to predict status in patients with adenocarcinoma of esophagogastric junction (AEG).

METHOD

A total of 101 patients with -positive (n=46) and -negative (n=55) esophagogastric junction adenocarcinoma (AEG) were retrospectively analyzed. They were then randomly divided into a training cohort (n=70) and a verification cohort (n=31). The radiomics features were obtained from the portal phase of the CT enhanced scan. We used the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) logistic regression method to select the best radiomics features in the training cohort, combined them linearly, and used the radiomics signature formula to calculate the radiomics score (Rad-score) of each AEG patient. A multivariable logistic regression method was applied to develop a prediction model that incorporated the radiomics signature and independent risk predictors. The prediction performance of the nomogram was evaluated using the training and validation cohorts.

RESULT

In the training (P<0.001) and verification groups (P<0.001), the radiomics signature combined with seven radiomics features was significantly correlated with status. The nomogram composed of CT-reported T stage and radiomics signature showed very good predictive performance for status. The area under the curve (AUC) of the training cohort was 0.946 (95% CI: 0.919-0.973), and that of the validation group was 0.903 (95% CI: 0.847-0.959). The calibration curve of the radiomics nomogram showed a good degree of calibration. Decision-curve analysis revealed that the radiomics nomogram was useful.

CONCLUSION

The nomogram CT-based radiomics signature combined with CT-reported T stage can better predict the status of AEG before surgery. It can be used as a non-invasive prediction tool for status and is expected to guide clinical treatment decisions in clinical practice, and it can assist in the formulation of individualized treatment plans.