Environmental, Safety Technology and Health Program, School of Public Health, Walailak University, Nakhon Si Thammarat.
School of Engineering and Technology, Walailak University, Thasala, Nakhon Si Thammarat.
Geospat Health. 2021 Oct 28;16(2). doi: 10.4081/gh.2021.1012.
The tropical climate of Thailand encourages very high mosquito densities in certain areas and is ideal for dengue transmission, especially in the southern region where the province Nakhon Si Thammarat is located. It has the longest dengue fever transmission duration that is affected by some important climate predictors, such as rainfall, number of rainy days, temperature and humidity. We aimed to explore the relationship between weather variables and dengue and to analyse transmission hotspots and coldspots at the district-level. Poisson probability distribution of the generalized linear model (GLM) was used to examine the association between the monthly weather variable data and the reported number of dengue cases from January 2002 to December 2018 and geographic information system (GIS) for dengue hotspot analysis. Results showed a significant association between the environmental variables and dengue incidence when comparing the seasons. Temperature, sea-level pressure and wind speed had the highest coefficients, i.e. β=0.17, β= -0.12 and β= -0.11 (P<0.001), respectively. The risk of dengue incidence occurring during the rainy season was almost twice as high as that during monsoon. Statistically significant spatial clusters of dengue cases were observed all through the province in different years. Nabon was identified as a hotspot, while Pak Phanang was a coldspot for dengue fever incidence, explained by the fact that the former is a rubber-plantation hub, while the agricultural plains of the latter lend themselves to the practice of pisciculture combined with rice farming. This information is imminently important for planning apt sustainable control measures for dengue epidemics.
泰国的热带气候在某些地区导致了极高的蚊子密度，非常有利于登革热传播，尤其是在南部地区，那恰是那拉提瓦府的所在地。该地区的登革热传播时间最长，受到一些重要气候因素的影响，如降雨量、降雨天数、温度和湿度。我们旨在探讨天气变量与登革热之间的关系，并分析区县级别的传播热点和冷点。广义线性模型（GLM）的泊松概率分布用于检验 2002 年 1 月至 2018 年 12 月的每月天气变量数据与报告的登革热病例数之间的关联，并使用地理信息系统（GIS）进行登革热热点分析。结果表明，在比较季节时，环境变量与登革热发病率之间存在显著关联。温度、海平面气压和风速的系数最高，分别为β=0.17、β=-0.12 和β=-0.11（P<0.001）。雨季登革热发病率的风险几乎是季风季的两倍。在不同的年份中，整个省份都观察到了登革热病例的统计学显著空间聚类。那拉提瓦被确定为登革热热点，而巴帕楠是登革热冷点，这是因为前者是橡胶种植中心，而后者的农业平原适合与水稻种植相结合的水产养殖。这些信息对于规划适当的登革热流行可持续控制措施至关重要。
