Faculty of Science and Technology, Sakon Nakhon Rajabhat University, Nittayo Road, That Choeng Chum, Mueang, Sakon Nakhon, 47000, Thailand.
Sci Total Environ. 2010 Oct 15;408(22):5521-8. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2010.08.024.
The paper deals with the incidence of the Dengue Virus Infection (DVI) in the 18 districts of Sakon Nakhon Province, Thailand, from January 2005 to December 2007. Using a statistical and autoregressive analysis to smooth incidence data, we have constructed yearly and monthly district level maps of the DVI distribution. It is found that the DVI incidence is very correlated with weather conditions and higher occurrences are observed in the three most populated districts Wanon Niwat, Sawang Daen Din and Mueang Sakon Nakhon, and the virus transmission period spans from mid-summer to mid-rainy seasons (from April to August). Employing a Generalized Linear Model (GLM), we found that the DVI incidences were related with current meteorological (monthly minimum temperature, past 2-month cumulated rainfall) and socio-economical (population of 0-4years old, per capita number of public small water wells, and proportion of villages with primary schools) covariates. And using the GLM under the climate change conditions (A1B scenario of IPCC), we found that the higher risk of DVI spreads from the three most populated districts to less populated ones, and the period of virus transmission increases from 5 to 9months to include part of winter, summer and rainy seasons (from March to November) during which 6%, 61% and 33% of districts will be at low, medium and high risk of DVI occurrences, respectively.
本文探讨了 2005 年 1 月至 2007 年 12 月期间泰国色军府 18 个区登革热病毒感染（DVI）的发病率。我们使用统计和自回归分析对发病率数据进行平滑处理，构建了每年和每月的区县级 DVI 分布地图。结果表明，DVI 的发病率与天气条件密切相关，发病率较高的三个人口最多的区为挽那威瓦特区、三攀他旺区和直辖市区，病毒传播期从初夏持续到雨季中期（4 月至 8 月）。采用广义线性模型（GLM），我们发现 DVI 的发病率与当前气象条件（每月最低温度、过去 2 个月累计降雨量）和社会经济因素（0-4 岁人口、每口公用水井数量和有小学的村庄比例）有关。并根据气候变化条件（IPCC 的 A1B 情景）下的 GLM，我们发现 DVI 的高风险传播范围从三个人口最多的区扩大到人口较少的区，病毒传播期从 5 个月延长到 9 个月，包括冬季、夏季和雨季的部分时间（3 月至 11 月），在此期间，6%、61%和 33%的区将分别处于 DVI 低、中、高风险水平。
