Wageningen Bioveterinary Research, Wageningen University & Research, Lelystad, The Netherlands.
Wageningen Economic Research, Wageningen University & Research, Den Haag, The Netherlands.
PLoS One. 2021 Nov 2;16(11):e0259466. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0259466. eCollection 2021.
To evaluate and compare the risk of emerging vector-borne diseases (VBDs), a Model for INTegrated RISK assessment, MINTRISK, was developed to assess the introduction risk of VBDs for new regions in an objective, transparent and repeatable manner. MINTRISK is a web-based calculation tool, that provides semi-quantitative risk scores that can be used for prioritization purposes. Input into MINTRISK is entered by answering questions regarding entry, transmission, establishment, spread, persistence and impact of a selected VBD. Answers can be chosen from qualitative answer categories with accompanying quantitative explanation to ensure consistent answering. The quantitative information is subsequently used as input for the model calculations to estimate the risk for each individual step in the model and for the summarizing output values (rate of introduction; epidemic size; overall risk). The risk assessor can indicate his uncertainty on each answer, and this is accounted for by Monte Carlo simulation. MINTRISK was used to assess the risk of four VBDs (African horse sickness, epizootic haemorrhagic disease, Rift Valley fever, and West Nile fever) for the Netherlands with the aim to prioritise these diseases for preparedness. Results indicated that the overall risk estimate was very high for all evaluated diseases but epizootic haemorrhagic disease. Uncertainty intervals were, however, wide limiting the options for ranking of the diseases. Risk profiles of the VBDs differed. Whereas all diseases were estimated to have a very high economic impact once introduced, the estimated introduction rates differed from low for Rift Valley fever and epizootic haemorrhagic disease to moderate for African horse sickness and very high for West Nile fever. Entry of infected mosquitoes on board of aircraft was deemed the most likely route of introduction for West Nile fever into the Netherlands, followed by entry of infected migratory birds.
为了评估和比较新发媒介传播疾病（VBD）的风险，开发了一种综合风险评估模型（MINTRISK），以客观、透明和可重复的方式评估新地区 VBD 的传入风险。MINTRISK 是一种基于网络的计算工具，提供可用于优先级排序的半定量风险评分。MINTRISK 的输入是通过回答有关选定 VBD 的进入、传播、建立、传播、持续和影响的问题来输入的。答案可以从定性答案类别中选择，并附有定量解释，以确保一致回答。定量信息随后被用作模型计算的输入，以估计模型中每个单独步骤的风险以及汇总输出值（传入率；流行规模；总体风险）。风险评估者可以对每个答案表示其不确定性，这通过蒙特卡罗模拟来考虑。MINTRISK 用于评估四种 VBD（非洲马瘟、传染性出血性疾病、裂谷热和西尼罗河热）对荷兰的风险，目的是为准备工作对这些疾病进行优先级排序。结果表明，所有评估疾病的总体风险估计都非常高，但除了传染性出血性疾病。然而，不确定性区间很宽，限制了疾病的排名选择。VBD 的风险概况不同。尽管所有疾病一旦传入，预计都会产生非常高的经济影响，但估计的传入率从裂谷热和传染性出血性疾病的低到非洲马瘟的中等，以及西尼罗河热的非常高。感染的蚊子通过飞机进入被认为是西尼罗河热传入荷兰最可能的途径，其次是感染的候鸟进入。
