Predictors of in-hospital Outcomes in Patients With Cirrhosis and Coronavirus Disease-2019.

BACKGROUND

Coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19) cases continue to increase globally. Poor outcomes in patients with COVID-19 and cirrhosis have been reported; predictors of outcome are unclear. The existing data is from the early part of the pandemic when variants of concern (VOC) were not reported.

AIMS

We aimed to assess the outcomes and predictors in patients with cirrhosis and COVID-19. We also compared the differences in outcomes between the first wave of pandemic and the second wave.

METHODS

In this retrospective analysis of a prospectively maintained database, data on consecutive cirrhosis patients (n = 221) admitted to the COVID-19 care facility of a tertiary care center in India were evaluated for presentation, the severity of liver disease, the severity of COVID-19, and outcomes.

RESULTS

The clinical presentation included: 18 (8.1%) patients had compensated cirrhosis, 139 (62.9%) acute decompensation (AD), and 64 (29.0%) had an acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF). Patients with ACLF had more severe COVID-19 infection than those with compensated cirrhosis and AD (54.7% vs. 16.5% and 33.3%, < 0.001). The overall mortality was 90 (40.7%), the highest among ACLF (72.0%). On multivariate analysis, independent predictors of mortality were high leukocyte count, alkaline phosphatase, creatinine, child class, model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score, and COVID-19 severity. The second wave had more cases of severe COVID-19 as compared to the first wave, with a similar MELD score and Child score. The overall mortality was similar between the two waves.

CONCLUSION

Patients with COVID-19 and cirrhosis have high mortality (40%), particularly those with ACLF (72%). A higher leukocyte count, creatinine, alkaline phosphatase, Child class, and MELD score are predictors of mortality.