COVID-PA 公报：巴西帕拉州利用人工智能进行新冠疫情预测的报告。
COVID-PA Bulletin: reports on artificial intelligence-based forecasting in coping with COVID-19 pandemic in the state of Pará, Brazil.
机构信息
Universidade Federal Rural da Amazônia, Campus Paragominas, Paragominas, Pará, Brasil.
Universidade Federal do Oeste do Pará, Programa de Pós-Graduação em Ciências da Saúde, Santarém, PA, Brasil.
出版信息
Epidemiol Serv Saude. 2021 Oct 29;30(4):e2021098. doi: 10.1590/S1679-49742021000400012. eCollection 2021.
OBJECTIVE
To report the university extension research result entitled 'The COVID-PA Bulletin', which presented forecasts on the behavior of the pandemic in the state of Pará, Brazil.
METHODS
The artificial intelligence technique also known as 'artificial neural networks' was used to generate 13 bulletins with short-term forecasts based on historical data from the State Department of Public Health information system.
RESULTS
After eight months of predictions, the technique generated reliable results, with an average accuracy of 97% (observed for147 days) for confirmed cases, 96% (observed for 161 days) for deaths and 86% (observed for 72 days) for Intensive Care Unit bed occupancy.
CONCLUSION
These bulletins have become a useful decision-making tool for public managers, assisting in the reallocation of hospital resources and optimization of COVID-19 control strategies in various regions of the state of Pará.
目的
报告大学推广研究成果“COVID-PA 公报”，该公报对巴西帕拉州大流行行为进行了预测。
方法
使用人工智能技术，又称“人工神经网络”，根据州公共卫生部信息系统的历史数据生成了 13 份短期预测公告。
结果
经过八个月的预测，该技术产生了可靠的结果，确诊病例的平均准确率为 97%（观察 147 天），死亡病例的准确率为 96%（观察 161 天），重症监护病房床位占用率为 86%（观察 72 天）。
结论
这些公报已成为公共管理人员的有用决策工具，有助于在帕拉州的各个地区重新分配医院资源和优化 COVID-19 控制策略。
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