Rao Duaa, Tanveer Aleena, Iftekhar Emil Nafis, Müller Sophie Alice, Sherratt Katharine, Röbl Klara, Carrillo-Bustamante Paola, Heldt Katharina, Fitzner Julia, Hanefeld Johanna, Funk Sebastian
Centre for International Health Protection, Robert Koch Institute, Berlin, Germany.
Institute of International Health, Charité-Universitätsmedizin Berlin, Berlin, Germany.
PLOS Glob Public Health. 2025 Sep 2;5(9):e0005120. doi: 10.1371/journal.pgph.0005120. eCollection 2025.
Infectious disease modelling plays a critical role in guiding decisions during outbreaks. However, ongoing debates over the utility of these models highlight the need for a deeper understanding of their exact role in decision-making. In this scoping review we sought to fill this gap, focusing on challenges and facilitators of translating modelling insights into actionable policies. We searched the Ovid database to identify modelling studies that included an assessment of utility in informing policy and decision-making from January 2019 onwards. We further identified studies based on expert judgement. Results were analysed descriptively. The study was registered on the Open Science Framework platform. Out of 4007 screened and 12 additionally suggested studies, a total of 33 studies were selected for our review. None of the included articles provided objective assessments of utility but rather reflected subjectively on modelling efforts and highlighted individual key aspects for utility. 27 of the included articles considered the COVID-19 pandemic and 25 of the articles were from high-income countries. Most modelling efforts aimed to forecast outbreaks and evaluate mitigation strategies. Participatory stakeholder engagement and collaboration between academia, policy, and non-governmental organizations were identified as key facilitators of the modelling-for-decisions pathway. However, barriers such as data inconsistencies and quality, uncoordinated decision-making, limited funding and misinterpretation of uncertainties hindered effective use of modelling in decision-making. While our review identifies crucial facilitators and barriers for the modelling-for-decisions pathway, the lack of rigorous assessments of the utility of modelling for decisions highlights the need to systematically evaluate the impact of infectious disease modelling on decisions in future.
传染病建模在疫情期间的决策指导中发挥着关键作用。然而，关于这些模型效用的持续争论凸显了深入理解其在决策中确切作用的必要性。在本范围综述中，我们试图填补这一空白，重点关注将建模见解转化为可操作政策的挑战和促进因素。我们检索了Ovid数据库，以识别自2019年1月起包括对为政策和决策提供信息的效用评估的建模研究。我们还根据专家判断确定了研究。对结果进行了描述性分析。该研究在开放科学框架平台上进行了注册。在筛选的4007项研究和另外推荐的12项研究中，共选出33项研究进行综述。纳入的文章均未提供对效用的客观评估，而是主观地反映了建模工作，并突出了效用的各个关键方面。纳入的文章中有27篇考虑了新冠疫情，25篇来自高收入国家。大多数建模工作旨在预测疫情爆发并评估缓解策略。利益相关者的参与以及学术界、政策制定者和非政府组织之间的合作被确定为决策建模途径的关键促进因素。然而，数据不一致和质量、决策不协调、资金有限以及对不确定性的误解等障碍阻碍了建模在决策中的有效应用。虽然我们的综述确定了决策建模途径的关键促进因素和障碍，但缺乏对决策建模效用的严格评估凸显了未来系统评估传染病建模对决策影响的必要性。
