Department of Agrotechnology and Agribusiness, Faculty of Agriculture and Forestry, University of Warmia and Mazury in Olsztyn, ul. Oczapowskiego 8, 10-719, Olsztyn, Poland.
Center for Bioeconomy and Renewable Energies, University of Warmia and Mazury in Olsztyn, Pl. Łódzki 3, 10-727, Olsztyn, Poland.
Sci Rep. 2021 Nov 5;11(1):21753. doi: 10.1038/s41598-021-01273-8.
How agricultural ecosystems adapt to climate change is one of the most important issues facing agronomists at the turn of the century. Understanding agricultural ecosystem responses requires assessing the relative shift in climatic constraints on crop production at regional scales such as the temperate zone. In this work we propose an approach to modeling the growth, development and yield of Triticum durum Desf. under the climatic conditions of north-eastern Poland. The model implements 13 non-measurable parameters, including climate conditions, agronomic factors, physiological processes, biophysical parameters, yield components and biological yield (latent variables), which are described by 33 measurable predictors as well as grain and straw yield (manifest variables). The agronomic factors latent variable was correlated with nitrogen fertilization and sowing density, and biological yield was correlated with grain yield and straw yield. An analysis of the model parameters revealed that a one unit increase in agronomic factors increased biological yield by 0.575. In turn, biological yield was most effectively determined by climate conditions (score of 60-62) and biophysical parameters (score of 60-67) in the 2nd node detectable stage and at the end of heading. The modeled configuration of latent and manifest variables was responsible for less than 70% of potential biological yield, which indicates that the growth and development of durum wheat in north-eastern Europe can be further optimized to achieve high and stable yields. The proposed model accounts for local climate conditions and physiological processes in plants, and it can be implemented to optimize agronomic practices in the cultivation of durum wheat and, consequently, to expand the area under T. durum to regions with a temperate climate.
农业生态系统如何适应气候变化是本世纪初农学家面临的最重要问题之一。了解农业生态系统的响应需要评估在温带等区域尺度上作物生产对气候约束的相对变化。在这项工作中，我们提出了一种方法来模拟波兰东北部气候条件下硬粒小麦生长、发育和产量。该模型实现了 13 个不可测量的参数，包括气候条件、农艺因素、生理过程、生物物理参数、产量构成和生物产量（潜在变量），这些参数由 33 个可测量的预测因子以及籽粒和秸秆产量（显变量）来描述。农艺因素潜在变量与氮肥和播种密度相关，生物产量与籽粒产量和秸秆产量相关。模型参数分析表明，农艺因素增加一个单位会使生物产量增加 0.575。反过来，在可检测的第 2 个节点和抽穗结束时，生物产量主要受气候条件（评分 60-62）和生物物理参数（评分 60-67）的影响。潜在变量和显变量的模型配置负责不到 70%的潜在生物产量，这表明在东欧硬粒小麦的生长和发育可以进一步优化，以实现高产和稳定的产量。所提出的模型考虑了当地的气候条件和植物的生理过程，它可以被用来优化硬粒小麦的农艺实践，从而将 T. durum 的种植面积扩展到温带气候地区。
