Xu Yuanxian, Dong Jianjun, Ren Rui, Yang Kai, Chen Zhilong
School of Defense Engineering, Army Engineering University of PLA, Nanjing, 210007, China.
School of Civil Engineering, Nanjing Tech University, Nanjing, 211816, China.
Transp Policy (Oxf). 2022 Feb;116:81-95. doi: 10.1016/j.tranpol.2021.10.020. Epub 2021 Oct 30.
The global outbreak of COVID-19 has further exposed deficiencies in city logistics based on human and ground roads, such as poor emergency response capacity and high risk of infection during transportation. Metro-based underground logistics system (M-ULS) may be an innovative approach to deal with this city-level disaster due to its efficient operation, contactless and driverless characteristics. However, the market evolution process and the quantitative calculation framework of comprehensive benefits after the application of M-ULS are still unclear, which has become a problem of mutual restriction with the extensive application of M-ULS. This paper attempts to use the system dynamics method, based on the real-world simulation, to analyze the quantitative relationship between the M-ULS implementation and the city logistics performance under epidemic outbreaks. Wuhan city in China was selected as the empirical background, and five simulation scenarios were set under different implementation strategies of M-ULS in response to the epidemic. Six variables were selected to measure city logistics performance and M-ULS operation status, including demand fill-rate, unit delivery time, total deprivation cost, total transportation cost, total number of susceptible people, and utilization rate of M-ULS. The results show that M-ULS is effective in improving the performance of city logistics and responding to the epidemic. The delivery time and transportation cost have a strong impact on the market share of M-ULS. Finally, a set of incentive policies was designed to promote the adoption of M-ULS. The findings not only provide a method for evaluating the overall performance of M-ULS, but also provide a unique perspective for promoting the implementation of M-ULS and responding to the transportation challenges brought by the epidemic.
新冠疫情的全球爆发进一步暴露了基于人力和地面道路的城市物流的不足，比如应急响应能力差以及运输过程中感染风险高。基于地铁的地下物流系统（M-ULS）因其高效运行、非接触和无人驾驶的特点，可能是应对这种城市层面灾难的一种创新方法。然而，M-ULS应用后的市场演变过程和综合效益定量计算框架仍不明确，这已成为与M-ULS广泛应用相互制约的问题。本文试图运用系统动力学方法，基于实际模拟，分析疫情爆发情况下M-ULS实施与城市物流绩效之间的定量关系。选取中国武汉市作为实证背景，针对疫情设置了M-ULS不同实施策略下的五个模拟场景。选取六个变量来衡量城市物流绩效和M-ULS运行状况，包括需求满足率、单位配送时间、总短缺成本、总运输成本、易感人群总数以及M-ULS利用率。结果表明M-ULS在提升城市物流绩效和应对疫情方面是有效的。配送时间和运输成本对M-ULS的市场份额有很大影响。最后，设计了一套激励政策来促进M-ULS的采用。研究结果不仅为评估M-ULS的整体绩效提供了一种方法，也为推动M-ULS的实施以及应对疫情带来的运输挑战提供了独特视角。
