Saenko V V, Kolpakov A Yu
Institute of Economic Forecasting, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia.
Stud Russ Econ Dev. 2021;32(6):668-675. doi: 10.1134/S1075700721060137. Epub 2021 Nov 5.
The article examines two scenarios for the development of the world energy sector. According to the first, all countries are supposed to meet the objectives of the current energy and climate policy, and in it the world demand for hydrocarbons for 2018-2035 is growing by 10%; according to the second scenario, it is additionally assumed that all countries will achieve Nationally Determined Contributions to the Paris Agreement, as a result of which the world consumption of hydrocarbons may decrease by 4%. Arguments are given supporting Russia's ability to increase the export of hydrocarbons to foreign markets in both scenarios, at least in the next decade. In view of this, measures for intensifying the export of Russian hydrocarbons seem appropriate but the question arises about the rational use of generated income for the purpose of ensuring sustainable growth of the Russian economy and its regions.
本文研究了世界能源部门发展的两种情景。第一种情景下，所有国家都应实现当前能源与气候政策的目标，在这种情景中，2018年至2035年全球对碳氢化合物的需求增长10%；第二种情景下，额外假定所有国家都将实现对《巴黎协定》的国家自主贡献，其结果是全球碳氢化合物消费量可能下降4%。文中给出了论据，支持俄罗斯在这两种情景下至少在未来十年内都有能力增加碳氢化合物向国外市场的出口。鉴于此，加强俄罗斯碳氢化合物出口的措施似乎是合适的，但问题是如何合理使用所产生的收入，以确保俄罗斯经济及其各地区的可持续增长。
