Wang Liyan, Zhang Qiang, Liu Jijun
School of Mathematics, Southeast University, Nanjing, 210096, PR China.
Nanjing Center for Applied Mathematics, Nanjing, 211135, PR China.
Appl Math Lett. 2022 Mar;125:107783. doi: 10.1016/j.aml.2021.107783. Epub 2021 Nov 5.
The 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19) emerged at the end of 2019 has a great influence on the health and lives of people all over the world. The spread principle is still unclear. This paper considers a novel evolution model of COVID-19 in terms of an integral-differential equation, involving vaccination effect and the incubation of COVID-19. The proposed mathematical model is rigorously analyzed on its asymptotic behavior with new probability functions, showing the final spread tendency. Moreover, our model is also verified numerically by the practical epidemic data of COVID-19 in Yangzhou from July to August 2021.
2019年末出现的新型冠状病毒（COVID-19）对全世界人民的健康和生活产生了重大影响。其传播原理仍不清楚。本文从一个包含疫苗接种效果和COVID-19潜伏期的积分-微分方程的角度考虑了一种新型的COVID-19演化模型。利用新的概率函数对所提出的数学模型的渐近行为进行了严格分析，展示了最终的传播趋势。此外，我们的模型还通过2021年7月至8月扬州市COVID-19的实际疫情数据进行了数值验证。
