Rihan Fathalla A, Kandasamy Udhayakumar, Alsakaji Hebatallah J, Sottocornola Nicola
Department of Mathematical Sciences, College of Science, United Arab Emirates University, Al-Ain 15551, United Arab Emirates.
College of Natural and Health Sciences, Zayed University, Abu Dhabi P.O. Box 144534, United Arab Emirates.
Vaccines (Basel). 2023 Mar 29;11(4):758. doi: 10.3390/vaccines11040758.
In this study, we provide a fractional-order mathematical model that considers the effect of vaccination on COVID-19 spread dynamics. The model accounts for the latent period of intervention strategies by incorporating a time delay τ. A basic reproduction number, R0, is determined for the model, and prerequisites for endemic equilibrium are discussed. The model's endemic equilibrium point also exhibits local asymptotic stability (under certain conditions), and a Hopf bifurcation condition is established. Different scenarios of vaccination efficacy are simulated. As a result of the vaccination efforts, the number of deaths and those affected have decreased. COVID-19 may not be effectively controlled by vaccination alone. To control infections, several non-pharmacological interventions are necessary. Based on numerical simulations and fitting to real observations, the theoretical results are proven to be effective.
在本研究中，我们提供了一个分数阶数学模型，该模型考虑了疫苗接种对新冠病毒传播动态的影响。通过纳入时间延迟τ，该模型考虑了干预策略的潜伏期。为该模型确定了基本再生数R0，并讨论了地方病平衡点的先决条件。该模型的地方病平衡点在一定条件下也表现出局部渐近稳定性，并建立了霍普夫分岔条件。模拟了不同的疫苗接种效果情景。由于疫苗接种工作，死亡人数和受影响人数有所减少。仅靠疫苗接种可能无法有效控制新冠病毒。为了控制感染，需要采取几种非药物干预措施。基于数值模拟和与实际观测值的拟合，理论结果被证明是有效的。
