Grinin Leonid, Grinin Anton, Korotayev Andrey
HSE University, Moscow; Institute of Oriental Studies, Russian Academy of Sciences,Russia.
Moscow State Lomonosov University,Russia.
Technol Forecast Soc Change. 2022 Feb;175:121348. doi: 10.1016/j.techfore.2021.121348. Epub 2021 Nov 12.
Among many influences that the pandemic has and will have on society and the World System as a whole, one of the most important is the acceleration of the start of a new technological wave and a new technological paradigm in the near future. This impact is determined by the growing need for the development of a number of areas in medicine, bio- and nanotechnology, artificial intelligence and others, which we denote as "MANBRIC convergence". It is shown that the experience of dealing with the COVID-19 pandemic has confirmed that the final phase of the Cybernetic Revolution will begin in the 2030s at the intersection of a number of medical, bio, digital and several other technologies, with medical needs as an integrating link. Among the multitude of self-regulating systems in the economy and life (which, in our opinion, will flourish during the Cybernetic Revolution) socio-technical self-regulating systems (SSSs) will play a special role. Thus, COVID-19 becomes a powerful impetus not only in terms of accelerating technological development and approaching the final phase of the Cybernetic Revolution, but also in changing sociopolitical (and socio-administrative) relations in the forthcoming decades.
在这场大流行已经及将会对整个社会和世界体系产生的诸多影响中，最重要的影响之一是新技术浪潮和新技术范式在不久的将来加速兴起。这种影响取决于医学、生物和纳米技术、人工智能等多个领域发展的需求日益增长，我们将其称为“MANBRIC融合”。研究表明，应对新冠疫情的经验证实，控制论革命的最后阶段将于2030年代在一些医学、生物、数字及其他多种技术的交叉点开启，以医疗需求作为整合纽带。在经济和生活中的众多自我调节系统（我们认为这些系统将在控制论革命期间蓬勃发展）中，社会技术自我调节系统（SSS）将发挥特殊作用。因此，新冠疫情不仅在加速技术发展和推动控制论革命进入最后阶段方面成为强大动力，而且在未来几十年改变社会政治（以及社会行政）关系方面也将如此。
