Zhang Linfeng, Hou Meng, Liu Yichen, Wang Kun, Yang Hangjun
School of International Trade and Economics, University of International Business and Economics, Beijing, China.
University of British Columbia, Vancouver, Canada.
Transp Policy (Oxf). 2022 Feb;116:132-143. doi: 10.1016/j.tranpol.2021.11.015. Epub 2021 Nov 18.
This study empirically measures Beijing's international air connectivity through descriptive statistics and various connectivity indexes. In particular, we comprehensively benchmark Beijing's international air connectivity with other major international exchange centers and gateway airports around the world. It is found that, although Beijing has direct flights to a comparable number of foreign destinations, the city still significantly lags behind other major counterparts in international air connectivity. This is due to Beijing's inferior connection quality in terms of flight frequency, number of seats, flying distance, and its poor international transfer capability. Moreover, a gravity-type model is applied to investigate the determinants of Beijing's route-level direct flight traffic. An index of potential market size is calculated for a sample including candidate overseas airports without direct flights with Beijing. It is found that Beijing has already opened direct flights to most of the candidate airports that have high market potentials. The air transport market potentials to major B&R (Belt-and-Road) cities are very low. However, given China's growing trade and economic ties with the B&R countries, Beijing could consider more favorable policies in support of direct flight operations to B&R countries. It is more important for Beijing to upgrade air connectivity quality by liberalizing restrictions on flight frequency and airfare. The newly opened Beijing Daxing Airport adds valuable capacity for Beijing to better explore international connectivity. Although COVID-19 pandemic forces Beijing to shut down international flight operations until now, the city needs to formulate clearer long-term strategies to improve international its air connectivity.
本研究通过描述性统计和各种连通性指标，对北京的国际航空连通性进行了实证测度。具体而言，我们全面地将北京的国际航空连通性与全球其他主要国际交流中心和枢纽机场进行了基准对比。研究发现，尽管北京直飞的外国目的地数量与之相当，但在国际航空连通性方面，北京仍显著落后于其他主要对手。这是由于北京在航班频次、座位数、飞行距离等方面的连通质量较差，且国际中转能力不足。此外，应用引力模型研究了北京航线层面直飞航班流量的决定因素。针对一个包含与北京无直飞航班的候选海外机场的样本，计算了潜在市场规模指数。研究发现，北京已开通直飞大多数具有高市场潜力的候选机场的航班。北京与“一带一路”主要城市的航空运输市场潜力非常低。然而，鉴于中国与“一带一路”国家日益增长的贸易和经济联系，北京可考虑出台更优惠政策支持直飞“一带一路”国家的航班运营。对北京来说，通过放宽对航班频次和机票价格的限制来提升航空连通性质量更为重要。新开通的北京大兴机场为北京更好地拓展国际连通性增添了宝贵运力。尽管新冠疫情迫使北京至今暂停国际航班运营，但北京需要制定更清晰的长期战略来提升其国际航空连通性。
