衡量国际入境航班的新冠病毒输入病例风险——以中国为例的研究

Measuring imported case risk of COVID-19 from inbound international flights --- A case study on China.

作者信息

Zhang Linfeng, Yang Hangjun, Wang Kun, Zhan Yi, Bian Lei

机构信息

School of International Trade and Economics, University of International Business and Economics, Beijing, China.

School of Transportation, Jilin University, Changchun, China.

出版信息

J Air Transp Manag. 2020 Oct;89:101918. doi: 10.1016/j.jairtraman.2020.101918. Epub 2020 Aug 28.

Abstract

With COVID-19 spreading around the world, many countries are exposed to the imported case risk from inbound international flights. Several governments issued restrictions on inbound flights to mitigate such risk. But with the pandemic controlled in many countries, some decide to reopen the economy by relaxing the international air travel bans. As the virus has still been prevailing in many regions, this relaxation raises the alarm to import overseas cases and results in the revival of local pandemic. This study proposes a risk index to measure one country's imported case risk from inbound international flights. The index combines both daily dynamic international air connectivity data and the updated global COVID-19 data. It can measure the risk at the country, province and even specific route level. The proposed index was applied to China, which is the first country to experience and control COVID-19 pandemic while later becoming exposed to high imported case risk after the epidemic centers switched to Europe and the US afterward. The calculated risk indexes for each Chinese province or region show both spatial and temporal patterns from January to April 2020. It is found that China's strict restriction on inbound flights since March 26 was very effective to cut the imported case risk by half than doing nothing. But the overall index level kept rising because of the deteriorating pandemic conditions around the world. Hong Kong and Taiwan are the regions facing the highest imported case risk due to their superior international air connectivity and looser restriction on inbound flights. Shandong Province had the highest risk in February and early March due to its well-developed air connectivity with South Korea and Japan when the pandemic peaked in these two countries. Since mid-March, the imported case risk from Europe and the US dramatically increased. Last, we discuss policy implications for the relevant stakeholders to use our index to dynamically adjust the international air travel restrictions. This risk index can also be applied to other contexts and countries to relax restrictions on particular low-risk routes while still restricting the high-risk ones. This would balance the essential air travels need and the requirement to minimize the imported case risk.

摘要

随着新冠疫情在全球蔓延,许多国家面临来自国际入境航班的输入病例风险。一些政府对入境航班实施限制以降低此类风险。但随着许多国家疫情得到控制,一些国家决定通过放宽国际航空旅行禁令来重启经济。由于病毒仍在许多地区流行,这种放宽引发了对输入海外病例的担忧,并导致当地疫情死灰复燃。本研究提出了一个风险指数,用于衡量一个国家来自国际入境航班的输入病例风险。该指数结合了每日动态国际航空连通性数据和最新的全球新冠疫情数据。它可以在国家、省份甚至特定航线层面衡量风险。所提出的指数应用于中国,中国是第一个经历并控制新冠疫情的国家,后来在疫情中心转移到欧洲和美国后,面临着高输入病例风险。计算得出的中国各省份或地区的风险指数显示了2020年1月至4月的时空模式。研究发现,自3月26日以来中国对入境航班的严格限制非常有效,将输入病例风险降低了一半,而不采取任何措施的话风险会更高。但由于全球疫情形势恶化,总体指数水平持续上升。香港和台湾地区面临的输入病例风险最高,因为它们拥有优越的国际航空连通性以及对入境航班的限制较为宽松。山东省在2月和3月初风险最高,因为在这两个国家疫情高峰期,它与韩国和日本的航空连通性发达。自3月中旬以来,来自欧美国家的输入病例风险大幅增加。最后,我们讨论了相关利益攸关方利用我们的指数动态调整国际航空旅行限制的政策含义。这个风险指数也可以应用于其他情况和国家,在放宽对特定低风险航线限制的同时,仍然限制高风险航线。这将平衡基本航空旅行需求和尽量降低输入病例风险的要求。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/7c47/7455240/cc2ef1b32178/gr1_lrg.jpg

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