ARAID (Aragonese Agency for Research and Development), Agrifood Institute of Aragon (IA2), Department of Economic Analysis, Faculty of Economics and Business Studies, University of Zaragoza, Zaragoza, Spain; Basque Centre for Climate Change (BC3), Scientific Campus of the University of the Basque Country, 48940 Leioa, Spain.
TECNALIA, Basque Research and Technology Alliance (BRTA), Astondo Bidea Building 700, 48160 Derio, Bizkaia, Spain.
Sci Total Environ. 2022 Jan 20;805:150329. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.150329. Epub 2021 Sep 15.
Relevant energy questions have arisen because of the COVID-19 pandemic. The pandemic shock leads to emissions' reductions consistent with the rates of decrease required to achieve the Paris Agreement goals. Those unforeseen drastic reductions in emissions are temporary as long as they do not involve structural changes. However, the COVID-19 consequences and the subsequent policy response will affect the economy for decades. Focusing on the EU, this discussion article argues how recovery plans are an opportunity to deepen the way towards a low-carbon economy, improving at the same time employment, health, and equity and the role of modelling tools. Long-term alignment with the low-carbon path and the development of a resilient transition towards renewable sources should guide instruments and policies, conditioning aid to energy-intensive sectors such as transport, tourism, and the automotive industry. However, the potential dangers of short-termism and carbon leakage persist. The current energy-socio-economic-environmental modelling tools are precious to widen the scope and deal with these complex problems. The scientific community has to assess disparate, non-equilibrium, and non-ordinary scenarios, such as sectors and countries lockdowns, drastic changes in consumption patterns, significant investments in renewable energies, and disruptive technologies and incorporate uncertainty analysis. All these instruments will evaluate the cost-effectiveness of decarbonization options and potential consequences on employment, income distribution, and vulnerability.
由于 COVID-19 大流行，出现了一些相关的能源问题。大流行冲击导致排放量的减少与实现《巴黎协定》目标所需的减少率一致。只要这些减少不涉及结构变化，那么这些意外的、大幅的排放减少就是暂时的。然而，COVID-19 的后果以及随后的政策反应将影响经济数十年。本文以欧盟为例，讨论了复苏计划如何为向低碳经济迈进提供机会，同时改善就业、健康、公平以及建模工具的作用。与低碳路径的长期一致以及向可再生能源的弹性转型的发展应该指导工具和政策，为交通、旅游和汽车等能源密集型部门的援助设定条件。然而，短期主义和碳泄漏的潜在危险仍然存在。当前的能源-社会经济-环境建模工具对于扩大范围和解决这些复杂问题非常宝贵。科学界必须评估不同、非均衡和非普通的情景，例如部门和国家封锁、消费模式的急剧变化、对可再生能源的大量投资以及颠覆性技术，并纳入不确定性分析。所有这些工具都将评估脱碳选项的成本效益以及对就业、收入分配和脆弱性的潜在影响。
