Aghababaeian Hamidreza, Ostadtaghizadeh Abbas, Ardalan Ali, Asgary Ali, Akbary Mehry, Yekaninejad Mir Saeed, Sharafkhani Rahim, Stephens Carolyn
Department of Health in Emergencies and Disasters, School of Public Health, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran.
Department of Nursing and Emergency, Dezful University of Medical Sciences, Dezful, Iran.
Environ Health Insights. 2021 Nov 19;15:11786302211060152. doi: 10.1177/11786302211060152. eCollection 2021.
Despite the fact that Iran has been exposed to severe dust storms during the past 2 decades, few studies have investigated the health effects of these events in Iran. This study was conducted to assess the association between dust storms and daily non-accidental, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality in Dezful City (Khuzestan Province, Iran) during 2014 to 2019.
In this study, mortality, meteorological, and climatological data were obtained from the Dezful University of Medical Sciences, Iranian Meteorological Organization, and Department of Environment in Khuzestan Province, respectively. Days of dust storm were identified based on the daily concentration threshold of particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter of less than 10 μm (PM) according to Hoffmanns҆ definition, and then an ecological time-series was used to estimate the short-term effects of dust storms on daily mortality. Statistical analysis was performed using a distributed lag linear model (DLM) and a distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM) packages by R software and the study results were reported as excess mortality.
During the study period, 15 223 deaths were recorded, and 139 dust storms occurred in Dezful city. In addition, there was statistically significant excess risk of mortality due to dust storms in Dezful City (mortality in the group under 15 years of age, lag: 34.17% and 15-64 years of age groups, lag: 32.19%, lag: 3.28%), also dust storms had statistically significant effects on respiratory mortality (lag: 5.49%).
The findings of the current study indicate that dust storms increase the risk of mortality with some lags. An evidence-based early warning system may be able to aware the people of the health effects of dust storms.
尽管伊朗在过去20年中遭受了严重的沙尘暴，但很少有研究调查这些事件对伊朗健康的影响。本研究旨在评估2014年至2019年期间，伊朗胡齐斯坦省迪兹富尔市沙尘暴与每日非意外、心血管和呼吸系统死亡率之间的关联。
在本研究中，死亡率、气象和气候数据分别来自迪兹富尔医科大学、伊朗气象组织和胡齐斯坦省环境部。根据霍夫曼的定义，基于空气动力学直径小于10μm的颗粒物（PM）的每日浓度阈值确定沙尘暴日，然后使用生态时间序列估计沙尘暴对每日死亡率的短期影响。使用R软件的分布式滞后线性模型（DLM）和分布式滞后非线性模型（DLNM）软件包进行统计分析，研究结果以超额死亡率报告。
在研究期间，迪兹富尔市记录了15223例死亡，发生了139次沙尘暴。此外，迪兹富尔市因沙尘暴导致的死亡率存在统计学上的显著超额风险（15岁以下组死亡率，滞后：34.17%；15 - 64岁年龄组，滞后：32.19%，滞后：3.28%），沙尘暴对呼吸系统死亡率也有统计学上的显著影响（滞后：5.49%）。
本研究结果表明，沙尘暴会在一定滞后时间后增加死亡风险。一个基于证据的早期预警系统或许能够让人们意识到沙尘暴对健康的影响。
