Center for Medical Genetics, Keio University School of Medicine, Tokyo, Japan.
Department of Surgery, Keio University School of Medicine, Tokyo, Japan.
Travel Med Infect Dis. 2021 Nov-Dec;44:102210. doi: 10.1016/j.tmaid.2021.102210. Epub 2021 Nov 22.
The third wave of the COVID-19 epidemic in the island of Hokkaido, the second largest island in Japan, began abruptly in October 2020.
We conducted a phylodynamic analysis of the SARS-CoV-2 genome sequences obtained from tertiary medical centers in the Greater Tokyo Area and Sapporo, the largest city in the island of Hokkaido, and genome sequences published by GISAID, an international SARS-CoV-2 genome database. We also analyzed the statistics on the person-nights of travelers in the island of Hokkaido from the Greater Tokyo Area in 2019 versus 2020.
At least eight sub-lineages belonging to the B.1.1.214 lineage were introduced to the island of Hokkaido from the island of Honshu, the mainland of Japan from late July to November 2020, during the governmental travel promotion program. Five of the eight sub-lineages originated from the Greater Tokyo Area. Comparison of the monthly ratios of the person-nights of travelers in the island of Hokkaido from the Greater Tokyo Area in 2019 and 2020 revealed that the highest value occurred in October 2020.
We contend that the Japanese governmental travel promotion program contributed to the introduction of the B.1.1.214 sub-lineages from the main island of Honshu to the island of Hokkaido, and drove the third wave in Hokkaido, even if we are unable to establish the causality.
2020 年 10 月,日本第二大岛北海道的 COVID-19 疫情进入第三波。
我们对来自东京大都市区和北海道最大城市札幌的三级医疗机构以及 GISAID(一个国际 SARS-CoV-2 基因组数据库)中公布的 SARS-CoV-2 基因组序列进行了系统发育动力学分析。我们还分析了 2019 年和 2020 年来自东京大都市区的旅行者在北海道的人夜统计数据。
至少有 8 个属于 B.1.1.214 谱系的亚谱系于 2020 年 7 月底至 11 月期间,在日本政府的旅行推广计划下,从本州岛(日本主岛)传入北海道。这 8 个亚谱系中有 5 个起源于东京大都市区。比较 2019 年和 2020 年来自东京大都市区的旅行者在北海道的人夜比例,发现 2020 年 10 月的比例最高。
我们认为,日本政府的旅行推广计划促成了来自本州岛的 B.1.1.214 亚谱系传入北海道,并推动了北海道的第三波疫情,即使我们无法确定因果关系。