Ou Shiqi, Hsieh I-Yun Lisa, He Xin, Lin Zhenhong, Yu Rujie, Zhou Yan, Bouchard Jessey
Buildings and Transportation Science Division, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Knoxville, TN 37932, USA.
Department of Civil Engineering, National Taiwan University, Taipei 10617, Taiwan.
iScience. 2021 Oct 28;24(11):103375. doi: 10.1016/j.isci.2021.103375. eCollection 2021 Nov 19.
The promotion of plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs) is pivotal to China's carbon neutrality strategy. Therefore, it is important to understand the vehicle market evolution and its impacts in terms of costs, sales, industry fuel economy, and PEV's battery material demand. By examining vehicle technologies, cost, policy incentives, infrastructure, and driver behavior, this study quantitatively projects the dynamics of China's passenger vehicle market from 2020 to 2050 under multiple technology evolution scenarios. By 2050, battery electric vehicles could gain significant market share-as much as 30.4%-64.6%; and the industry's sales-weighted average fuel consumption could reach 1.81-3.11 L/100 km. Cumulative battery demand from PEVs could soar to over 700 GWh by 2050, whereas battery recycling alone could satisfy about 60% of the demand by 2050. The key metal supplies-lithium, cobalt, and nickel-for China's PEV market are projected, and nickel should be concerned more over the coming decades.
插电式电动汽车（PEV）的推广对中国的碳中和战略至关重要。因此，了解汽车市场的演变及其在成本、销售、行业燃油经济性和PEV电池材料需求方面的影响非常重要。通过研究车辆技术、成本、政策激励、基础设施和驾驶员行为，本研究在多种技术演变情景下对2020年至2050年中国乘用车市场的动态进行了定量预测。到2050年，纯电动汽车可能获得显著的市场份额，高达30.4%-64.6%；行业销售加权平均油耗可能达到1.81-3.11升/100公里。到2050年，PEV的累计电池需求可能飙升至700吉瓦时以上，而仅电池回收就能满足2050年约60%的需求。对中国PEV市场的关键金属供应——锂、钴和镍——进行了预测，未来几十年应更关注镍。
