Wang Fang, Zhang Shaojun, Zhao Yinan, Ma Yunxiao, Zhang Yichen, Hove Anders, Wu Ye
School of Environment, State Key Joint Laboratory of Environment Simulation and Pollution Control, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, People's Republic of China.
State Environmental Protection Key Laboratory of Sources and Control of Air Pollution Complex, Beijing 100084, People's Republic of China.
PNAS Nexus. 2023 May 16;2(5):pgad123. doi: 10.1093/pnasnexus/pgad123. eCollection 2023 May.
China has made great progress in the electrification of passenger cars, and the sales of battery electric vehicles (BEVs) have exceeded 10%. We applied a life-cycle assessment (LCA) method to estimate the carbon dioxide (CO) emissions of the past (2015), present (2020), and future (2030) BEVs, incorporating China's carbon peaking and neutrality policies, which would substantially reduce emissions from the electricity, operation efficiency, metallurgy, and battery manufacturing industries. BEVs can reduce cradle-to-grave (C2G) CO emissions by ∼40% compared with internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs) on the national-average level in 2020, far more significant than the benefit in 2015. Improved BEV operating efficiency was the largest factor driving emission reductions from 2015 to 2020. Looking forward to 2030, China's BEVs equipped with nickel-cobalt-manganese (NCM) batteries can achieve a further 43% of CO emissions reductions, among which 51 g km of reduction is from the well-to-wheels (WTW) stage majorly owing to the further cleaner electricity mix, while other vehicle-cycle benefits are mainly from the advancement of battery (12 g km) and related metal materials (5 g km). We highlight the importance of better material efficiency and synchronized decarbonization through the automotive industrial chain in promoting climate mitigation from transport activities.
中国在乘用车电气化方面取得了巨大进展，纯电动汽车（BEV）的销量已超过10%。我们应用生命周期评估（LCA）方法，结合中国的碳达峰和碳中和政策，估算了过去（2015年）、当前（2020年）和未来（2030年）纯电动汽车的二氧化碳（CO）排放量，这将大幅减少电力、运营效率、冶金和电池制造行业的排放。与2020年全国平均水平的内燃机汽车（ICEV）相比，纯电动汽车在从摇篮到坟墓（C2G）的全生命周期内可减少约40%的CO排放，远高于2015年的减排效益。2015年至2020年，纯电动汽车运行效率的提高是推动减排的最大因素。展望2030年，中国配备镍钴锰（NCM）电池的纯电动汽车可进一步实现43%的CO减排，其中51克/公里的减排来自于从井口到车轮（WTW）阶段，主要是由于电力结构进一步清洁，而其他车辆周期效益主要来自电池（12克/公里）和相关金属材料（5克/公里）的进步。我们强调了通过汽车产业链提高材料效率和同步脱碳在促进交通活动减缓气候变化方面的重要性。
