Energy Systems, Energy and Efficiency Institute, University of California Davis, 1605 Tilia St #100, Davis, California 95616, United States.
Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of California Davis, 1 Shields Avenue, Davis, California 95616, United States.
Environ Sci Technol. 2021 Apr 20;55(8):5189-5198. doi: 10.1021/acs.est.0c07030. Epub 2021 Mar 25.
Batteries have the potential to significantly reduce greenhouse gas emissions from on-road transportation. However, environmental and social impacts of producing lithium-ion batteries, particularly cathode materials, and concerns over material criticality are frequently highlighted as barriers to widespread electric vehicle adoption. Circular economy strategies, like reuse and recycling, can reduce impacts and secure regional supplies. To understand the potential for circularity, we undertake a dynamic global material flow analysis of pack-level materials that includes scenario analysis for changing battery cathode chemistries and electric vehicle demand. Results are produced regionwise and through the year 2040 to estimate the potential global and regional circularity of lithium, cobalt, nickel, manganese, iron, aluminum, copper, and graphite, although the analysis is focused on the cathode materials. Under idealized conditions, retired batteries could supply 60% of cobalt, 53% of lithium, 57% of manganese, and 53% of nickel globally in 2040. If the current mix of cathode chemistries evolves to a market dominated by NMC 811, a low cobalt chemistry, there is potential for 85% global circularity of cobalt in 2040. If the market steers away from cathodes containing cobalt, to an LFP-dominated market, cobalt, manganese, and nickel become less relevant and reach circularity before 2040. For each market to benefit from the recovery of secondary materials, recycling and manufacturing infrastructure must be developed in each region.
电池有可能显著减少道路交通的温室气体排放。然而，生产锂离子电池，特别是阴极材料，以及对材料关键程度的担忧所带来的环境和社会影响，经常被认为是广泛采用电动汽车的障碍。循环经济策略，如再利用和回收，可以减少影响并确保区域供应。为了了解循环利用的潜力，我们对电池级别的材料进行了动态的全球物质流分析，包括对电池阴极化学和电动汽车需求变化的情景分析。结果按地区和到 2040 年进行呈现，以估计锂、钴、镍、锰、铁、铝、铜和石墨的全球和区域循环利用潜力，尽管分析重点是阴极材料。在理想条件下，到 2040 年，全球范围内退役电池可提供 60%的钴、53%的锂、57%的锰和 53%的镍。如果当前的阴极化学组合演变为以 NMC 811 为主导的低钴化学市场，那么 2040 年全球钴的循环利用率可能达到 85%。如果市场远离含钴阴极，转向以 LFP 为主导的市场，钴、锰和镍的相关性就会降低，并在 2040 年前达到循环利用。为了使每个市场都从回收二次材料中受益，必须在每个地区开发回收和制造基础设施。
