Department of Electrical and Electronic Engineering, University of Buea, Buea, Cameroon.
PLoS One. 2021 Dec 2;16(12):e0260430. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0260430. eCollection 2021.
Identifying agricultural disaster risk regions before the occurrence of climate-related disasters is critical for early mitigation planning. This paper aims to identify these regions based on data from the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), the bilateral and multilateral trade network data of the World Integrated Trade Solution(WITS) and the agent-based economic model Acclimate. By applying a uniform forcing across agricultural sectors of some breadbasket regions (US, EU and China), when single and simultaneous extreme weather events occur, such as the 2018 European heatwave, production and consumption value losses and gains are calculated at regional and global levels. Comparing the FAO data sets, WITS, and Acclimate's production value losses, the results show a strong dependence of agricultural production losses on a region's output and connectivity level in the global supply and trade network. While India, Brazil, Russia, Canada, Australia, and Iran are highly vulnerable, the imposition of export restrictions to compensate for demand shortfalls makes Sub-Saharan Africa the most vulnerable region, as it is heavily dependent on agricultural imports. In addition, simultaneous extreme weather events can exacerbate the loss of value of agricultural production relative to single extreme weather events. Agricultural practices to increase production such as smart farming, increased investment in plantation agriculture, and diversification of trading partners can help mitigate future food security risks in Sub-Saharan Africa and other agricultural import-dependent regions.
在气候相关灾害发生之前识别农业灾害风险区域对于早期缓解规划至关重要。本文旨在基于联合国粮食及农业组织（FAO）的数据、世界综合贸易解决方案（WITS）的双边和多边贸易网络数据以及基于代理的经济模型 Acclimate 来识别这些区域。通过在一些粮食产区（美国、欧盟和中国）的农业部门应用统一的驱动力，当发生单一和同时的极端天气事件（如 2018 年欧洲热浪）时，将在区域和全球层面计算生产和消费价值的损失和收益。通过比较 FAO 数据集、WITS 和 Acclimate 的生产价值损失，结果表明农业生产损失强烈依赖于一个地区在全球供应和贸易网络中的产出和连接水平。尽管印度、巴西、俄罗斯、加拿大、澳大利亚和伊朗高度脆弱，但实施出口限制以弥补需求缺口会使撒哈拉以南非洲成为最脆弱的地区，因为该地区严重依赖农业进口。此外，同时发生的极端天气事件会加剧相对于单一极端天气事件的农业生产价值损失。增加生产的农业实践，如智能农业、增加对种植园农业的投资以及贸易伙伴的多样化，可以帮助减轻撒哈拉以南非洲和其他依赖农业进口的地区未来的粮食安全风险。
