Rush B R, Gliksman L, Brook R
J Stud Alcohol. 1986 Jan;47(1):1-10. doi: 10.15288/jsa.1986.47.1.
One of the major approaches to alcoholism prevention is referred to as the distribution of consumption model. This prevention model can be summarized as a causal model whereby the availability of alcoholic beverages has a direct causal effect on the aggregate level of alcohol consumption in the population and, in turn, an indirect effect on the incidence and prevalence of alcohol-related damage. This article summarizes an application of a statistical technique known as the analysis of linear structural relations (LISREL) to a set of Ontario data concerning alcohol availability, alcohol consumption and alcohol-related damage. Results substantiated the existence of specific causal paths consistent with the model. Several procedures for assessing the overall goodness-of-fit of the model suggested that it adequately fit the data. The results provide reasonable statistical evidence that government policies restricting the retail availability of alcoholic beverages will reduce the per capita rates of alcohol consumption and, in turn, reduce the level of alcohol-related mortality and morbidity in the general population.
预防酒精中毒的主要方法之一被称为消费分布模型。这种预防模型可以概括为一种因果模型，即酒精饮料的可得性对人群中酒精消费的总体水平有直接因果影响，进而对与酒精相关损害的发生率和患病率有间接影响。本文总结了一种称为线性结构关系分析（LISREL）的统计技术在一组关于安大略省酒精可得性、酒精消费和与酒精相关损害的数据中的应用。结果证实了与该模型一致的特定因果路径的存在。几种评估模型整体拟合优度的程序表明它能充分拟合数据。这些结果提供了合理的统计证据，即限制酒精饮料零售可得性的政府政策将降低人均酒精消费率，进而降低普通人群中与酒精相关的死亡率和发病率。
