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基于中国新冠肺炎疫情防控与复工复产经验的博弈分析

Game Analysis on Epidemic Prevention and Resuming Production: Based on China's Experience With COVID-19.

作者信息

Zhuang Weiqing, Wu Qiong, Jiang Ming, Ichiro Nakamoto, Zhang Tingyi, Yu Xuelian

机构信息

School of Internet Economics and Business, Fujian University of Technology, Fuzhou, China.

Research Center for "One Belt and One Road" Economic and Policy, Fujian University of Technology, Fuzhou, China.

出版信息

Front Psychol. 2021 Nov 17;12:747465. doi: 10.3389/fpsyg.2021.747465. eCollection 2021.

Abstract

Since the outbreak of COVID-19, it became urgent to deal with the relationship between the prevention and control of the epidemic and the resumption of work and production. The purpose of this study is to observe and describe which approach seemed more important for the Chinese government and people, and how this trend evolved through time. To this end, a game model of resuming production and preventing the epidemic is constructed, using the evolutionary stable strategy (ESS). By combing China's measures on epidemic prevention and resuming production during critical periods of epidemic outbreak, it is clarified that the present stage is considered a period of equal emphasis on both epidemic prevention and resuming production. Based on the dynamic between these two strategies and further theoretical research, present policies should equally focus on both preventive and controlling measures as well as on the socioeconomic development for most countries in the world.

摘要

自新冠疫情爆发以来,处理好疫情防控与复工复产之间的关系变得刻不容缓。本研究旨在观察和描述哪种方式对中国政府和人民显得更为重要,以及这一趋势如何随时间演变。为此,构建了一个运用进化稳定策略(ESS)的复工复产与防疫博弈模型。通过梳理中国在疫情爆发关键时期的防疫和复工复产措施,明确现阶段被视为防疫与复工复产并重的时期。基于这两种策略之间的动态关系以及进一步的理论研究,对于世界上大多数国家而言,当前政策应同样兼顾防控措施和社会经济发展。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/17d0/8635691/9ce236dcf671/fpsyg-12-747465-g001.jpg

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