Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544;
Department of Politics, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544;
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2021 Dec 14;118(50). doi: 10.1073/pnas.2102147118.
The precise mechanisms by which the information ecosystem polarizes society remain elusive. Focusing on political sorting in networks, we develop a computational model that examines how social network structure changes when individuals participate in information cascades, evaluate their behavior, and potentially rewire their connections to others as a result. Individuals follow proattitudinal information sources but are more likely to first hear and react to news shared by their social ties and only later evaluate these reactions by direct reference to the coverage of their preferred source. Reactions to news spread through the network via a complex contagion. Following a cascade, individuals who determine that their participation was driven by a subjectively "unimportant" story adjust their social ties to avoid being misled in the future. In our model, this dynamic leads social networks to politically sort when news outlets differentially report on the same topic, even when individuals do not know others' political identities. Observational follow network data collected on Twitter support this prediction: We find that individuals in more polarized information ecosystems lose cross-ideology social ties at a rate that is higher than predicted by chance. Importantly, our model reveals that these emergent polarized networks are less efficient at diffusing information: Individuals avoid what they believe to be "unimportant" news at the expense of missing out on subjectively "important" news far more frequently. This suggests that "echo chambers"-to the extent that they exist-may not echo so much as silence.
信息生态系统使社会极化的精确机制仍难以捉摸。我们专注于网络中的政治分类,开发了一个计算模型,研究了当个人参与信息级联、评估自己的行为,并可能因此重新建立与他人的联系时,社会网络结构会如何变化。个人会追随与自己态度一致的信息源,但更有可能首先听到并对其社交关系中分享的新闻做出反应,然后才会直接参考自己偏好的信息源的报道来评估这些反应。新闻通过复杂的传播在网络中传播。在级联之后,那些认为自己的参与是由一个主观上“不重要”的故事驱动的人会调整他们的社会关系,以避免将来被误导。在我们的模型中,当新闻媒体对同一主题进行不同的报道时,即使个人不知道他人的政治身份,这种动态也会导致社会网络出现政治分类。从 Twitter 上收集的观察性后续网络数据支持这一预测:我们发现,在信息生态系统更加极化的个体中,跨意识形态的社会关系以高于随机的速度丧失。重要的是,我们的模型揭示了这些新兴的极化网络在信息传播方面效率更低:个人为了避免他们认为“不重要”的新闻,而错过主观上“重要”的新闻的频率要高得多。这表明,“回音室”——如果存在的话——可能不会像沉默那样重复。