Department of Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544;
Department of Political Science, Queens College and The Graduate Center, City University of New York, Flushing, NY 11367;
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2021 Dec 14;118(50). doi: 10.1073/pnas.2102149118.
Using a general model of opinion dynamics, we conduct a systematic investigation of key mechanisms driving elite polarization in the United States. We demonstrate that the self-reinforcing nature of elite-level processes can explain this polarization, with voter preferences accounting for its asymmetric nature. Our analysis suggests that subtle differences in the frequency and amplitude with which public opinion shifts left and right over time may have a differential effect on the self-reinforcing processes of elites, causing Republicans to polarize more quickly than Democrats. We find that as self-reinforcement approaches a critical threshold, polarization speeds up. Republicans appear to have crossed that threshold while Democrats are currently approaching it.
利用一个通用的舆论动态模型，我们系统地研究了导致美国精英极化的关键机制。我们证明，精英层面的自我强化过程可以解释这种极化现象，而选民偏好则解释了其不对称性。我们的分析表明，随着时间的推移，公众舆论向左和向右转移的频率和幅度的细微差异可能对精英的自我强化过程产生不同的影响，导致共和党人比民主党人更快地极化。我们发现，随着自我强化接近一个临界阈值，极化速度加快。共和党人似乎已经越过了这个门槛，而民主党人目前正在接近这个门槛。
