一种行为建模方法，用于评估 COVID-19 疫苗犹豫的影响。
A behavioural modelling approach to assess the impact of COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy.
机构信息
Department of Mathematics and Applications, University of Naples Federico II, via Cintia, I-80126 Naples, Italy.
37 Quai du Docteur Gailleton, 69002 Lyon, France.
出版信息
J Theor Biol. 2022 Feb 7;534:110973. doi: 10.1016/j.jtbi.2021.110973. Epub 2021 Dec 8.
Abstract
We introduce a compartmental epidemic model to describe the spread of COVID-19 within a population, assuming that a vaccine is available, but vaccination is not mandatory. The model takes into account vaccine hesitancy and the refusal of vaccination by individuals, which take their decision on vaccination based on both the present and past information about the spread of the disease. Theoretical analysis and simulations show that voluntary vaccination can certainly reduce the impact of the disease but is unable to eliminate it. We also demonstrate how the information-related parameters affect the dynamics of the disease. In particular, vaccine hesitancy and refusal are better contained in case of widespread information coverage and short-term memory. Finally, the possible impact of seasonality on the spread of the disease is investigated.
摘要
我们引入了一个房室流行模型来描述 COVID-19 在人群中的传播，假设疫苗是可用的，但接种不是强制性的。该模型考虑了疫苗犹豫和个人拒绝接种疫苗的情况，他们根据疾病传播的当前和过去信息做出接种疫苗的决定。理论分析和模拟表明，自愿接种疫苗肯定可以减轻疾病的影响，但无法消除它。我们还展示了信息相关参数如何影响疾病的动态。特别是，在信息广泛覆盖和短期记忆的情况下，疫苗犹豫和拒绝的情况可以得到更好的控制。最后，还研究了季节性对疾病传播的可能影响。
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