Sun Zhilu, Zhang Defeng
Institute of Agricultural Economics and Development, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing 100081, China.
Foods. 2021 Dec 5;10(12):3012. doi: 10.3390/foods10123012.
The problem of food insecurity has become increasingly critical across the world since 2015, which threatens the lives and livelihoods of people around the world and has historically been a challenge confined primarily to developing countries, to which the countries of Central Asia, as typical transition countries, cannot be immune either. Under this context, many countries including Central Asian countries have recognized the importance of trade openness to ensure adequate levels of food security and are increasingly reliant on international trade for food security. Using the 2001-2018 panel data of Central Asian countries, based on food security's four pillars (including availability, access, stability, and utilization), this study empirically estimates the impact of trade openness and other factors on food security and traces a U-shaped (or inverted U-shaped) relationship between trade openness and food security by adopting a panel data fixed effect model as the baseline model, and then conducts the robustness test by using the least-squares (LS) procedure for the pooled data and a dynamic panel data (DPD) analysis with the generalized method of moments (GMM) approach, simultaneously. The results show that: (1) a U-shaped relationship between trade openness and the four pillars of food security was found, which means that beyond a certain threshold of trade openness, food security status tends to improve in Central Asian countries; (2) gross domestic product (GDP) per capita, GDP growth, and agricultural productivity have contributed to the improvement of food security. Employment in agriculture, arable land, freshwater withdrawals in agriculture, population growth, natural disasters, and inflation rate have negative impacts on food security; and (3) this study confirms that trade policy reforms can finally be conducive to improving food security in Central Asian countries. However, considering the effects of other factors, potential negative effects of trade openness, and vulnerability of global food trade network, ensuring reasonable levels of food self-sufficiency is still very important for Central Asian countries to achieve food security. Our research findings can provide scientific support for sustainable food system strategies in Central Asian countries.
自2015年以来，粮食不安全问题在全球范围内日益严峻，威胁着世界各地人们的生命和生计，且这一问题在历史上主要局限于发展中国家，作为典型转型国家的中亚各国也难以幸免。在此背景下，包括中亚国家在内的许多国家都认识到贸易开放对于确保足够粮食安全水平的重要性，并且在粮食安全方面越来越依赖国际贸易。本研究利用中亚国家2001 - 2018年的面板数据，基于粮食安全的四个支柱（包括可得性、获取、稳定性和利用），以面板数据固定效应模型作为基准模型，实证估计贸易开放度及其他因素对粮食安全的影响，并探寻贸易开放度与粮食安全之间的U型（或倒U型）关系，然后同时采用合并数据的最小二乘法（LS）程序和广义矩方法（GMM）的动态面板数据（DPD）分析进行稳健性检验。结果表明：（1）贸易开放度与粮食安全的四个支柱之间呈现U型关系，这意味着在贸易开放度超过一定阈值后，中亚国家的粮食安全状况趋于改善；（2）人均国内生产总值（GDP）、GDP增长和农业生产率对粮食安全的改善有贡献。农业就业、耕地、农业淡水 withdrawals、人口增长、自然灾害和通货膨胀率对粮食安全有负面影响；（3）本研究证实贸易政策改革最终有利于改善中亚国家的粮食安全。然而，考虑到其他因素的影响、贸易开放度的潜在负面影响以及全球粮食贸易网络的脆弱性，确保合理水平的粮食自给自足对中亚国家实现粮食安全仍然非常重要。我们的研究结果可为中亚国家可持续粮食系统战略提供科学支持。
