Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100101, China.
Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100101, China; State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environmental Information System, Institute of Geographic Science and Natural Resource Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100101, China.
Soc Sci Med. 2022 Jan;293:114660. doi: 10.1016/j.socscimed.2021.114660. Epub 2021 Dec 18.
Life expectancy (LE) varies across countries in space and time, and economic growth and air pollution are two important influence factors to LE. This study mainly aims to investigate spatiotemporal trends in LE in 134 countries from 1960 to 2016 by using Bayesian spatiotemporal modeling. Further, the relations between per capita gross domestic product (GDP) and population-weighted fine particulate matter (pwPM) and LE are investigated from a global perspective from 1998 to 2016 by using the Bayesian regression model. The results illustrated the heterogeneity of spatiotemporal trends in LE globally. Specifically, Africa and South-East Asia show much lower LE levels, and the Americas, European, and Western Pacific exhibit a relatively higher LE level compared to the overall level. The countries with low overall levels of LE show a relatively stronger upward trend than the overall upward trend and vice versa. In addition, this study demonstrates that the spatial differences in effects of influence factors on LE in the six WHO regions in the 134 countries. Africa shows the highest positive regression coefficient of GDP and lowest negative regression coefficient of pwPM on LE than other regions in the world. Furthermore, it shows the complexity of the interaction between economic growth and air pollution on LE across six WHO regions. Our findings suggest the public policies to reduce the health damage caused by air pollution, especially in Africa, Eastern Mediterranean, and Europe where the pwPM negatively affect the LE benefits from economic growth.
预期寿命（LE）在空间和时间上因国家而异，经济增长和空气污染是影响 LE 的两个重要因素。本研究主要旨在通过贝叶斯时空建模来调查 1960 年至 2016 年期间 134 个国家的 LE 的时空趋势。此外，本研究还通过贝叶斯回归模型，从全球角度调查了 1998 年至 2016 年期间人均国内生产总值（GDP）和人口加权细颗粒物（pwPM）与 LE 之间的关系。结果表明，LE 的时空趋势在全球范围内存在异质性。具体而言，非洲和东南亚的 LE 水平较低，而美洲、欧洲和西太平洋的 LE 水平相对较高。LE 整体水平较低的国家的上升趋势相对较强，反之亦然。此外，本研究还证明了影响因素对 134 个国家中六个世界卫生组织区域的 LE 的影响的空间差异。非洲的 GDP 对 LE 的正回归系数和 pwPM 对 LE 的负回归系数均高于世界其他地区。此外，本研究还展示了经济增长和空气污染对 LE 的相互作用在六个世界卫生组织区域的复杂性。研究结果表明，需要采取公共政策来减少空气污染对健康的损害，特别是在非洲、东地中海和欧洲，这些地区的 pwPM 对经济增长带来的 LE 收益产生负面影响。
