Ahmed Jawad, Avendaño Capriles Camilo Andrés, Avendaño Capriles Natalia M, Mehta Shivani M, Khan Nattaliea, Tariq Sheharyar, Abbas Ramsha, Tousif Sohaib, Shamim Khizer
Medicine, Liaquat National Hospital and Medical College, Karachi, PAK.
Foundations of Clinical Research (FCR) Program, Harvard Medical School, Boston, USA.
Cureus. 2021 Nov 27;13(11):e19937. doi: 10.7759/cureus.19937. eCollection 2021 Nov.
Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI) is a simple, validated, and readily acceptable method of determining the risk of mortality from comorbid disease. It has been used as a predictor of long-term survival and prognosis. The aim of this study is to determine the impact of CCI score on mortality in COVID-19 hospitalized patients and test the efficacy of the CoLACD score (COVID-19 lymphocyte ratio, age, CCI score, dyspnoea) in predicting mortality among hospitalized COVID-19 patients.
It was a retrospective cohort, and the data of this study were gathered from two tertiary hospitals of Karachi, including Liaquat National Hospital and Ziauddin Hospital. Data of patients hospitalized in any of these tertiary care hospitals and diagnosed with confirmed COVID-19 infection were used in the study from January 15, 2021, to April 30, 2021.
The mean age of participants was 53.22 (±14.21) years. The majority of participants were males (74.91%). Predictors of mortality include CCI score, age of participants, D-dimer, smoking status, and shortness of breath. The sensitivity of this CoLACD score was 80.23%, and specificity was 50.23% (diagnostic accuracy is 60.45%). The negative predictive value (NPV) of this test was 39.44%, and the positive predictive value (PPV) was 83.01%.
Our study showed that CCI can be used in a clinical setting to achieve a prediction of mortality in COVID-19 patients.
查尔森合并症指数（CCI）是一种简单、经过验证且易于接受的确定合并症导致死亡风险的方法。它已被用作长期生存和预后的预测指标。本研究的目的是确定CCI评分对COVID-19住院患者死亡率的影响，并测试CoLACD评分（COVID-19淋巴细胞比率、年龄、CCI评分、呼吸困难）在预测COVID-19住院患者死亡率方面的有效性。
这是一项回顾性队列研究，本研究的数据来自卡拉奇的两家三级医院，包括利亚卡特国家医院和齐亚乌丁医院。2021年1月15日至2021年4月30日期间，在这些三级护理医院中任何一家住院并被诊断为确诊COVID-19感染的患者的数据被用于本研究。
参与者的平均年龄为53.22（±14.21）岁。大多数参与者为男性（74.91%）。死亡率的预测因素包括CCI评分、参与者年龄、D-二聚体、吸烟状况和呼吸急促。该CoLACD评分的敏感性为80.23%，特异性为50.23%（诊断准确性为60.45%）。该测试的阴性预测值（NPV）为39.44%，阳性预测值（PPV）为83.01%。
我们的研究表明，CCI可在临床环境中用于预测COVID-19患者的死亡率。
