Yu Mingzhe, Kubiczek Jakub, Ding Kai, Jahanzeb Agha, Iqbal Nadeem
School of International Economics and Management, Beijing Technology and Business University, Beijing, China.
Department of Economic and Financial Analysis, University of Economics in Katowice, 40-287 Katowice, Poland.
Energy Effic. 2022;15(1):2. doi: 10.1007/s12053-021-10010-z. Epub 2021 Dec 30.
Policies on reducing energy demand should incorporate the newly formed economic models, digitalization, and consumer awareness trends. Therefore, this study analyzes the interaction of the three trends with SDG7 under energy efficiency vision 2050, measuring the energy efficiency of OECD from 2005 to 2017 to enable this inclusion. In this context, four new trends expected to shape future energy demand are identified through extensive consultation with experts from South Asian countries by developing future power demand for the year of 2050. Consequently, the results show a crucial impact of such trends on a future power demand that exceeds the economic potential of techno. Hence, the best-case scenario, "New Trends Efficient," reduces final energy demand by 78% compared to the South Asian "Baseline" scenario in 2050, whereas the "Worst Case" scenario increases final energy demand by 35%. Therefore, Austria and Korea have the highest energy efficiency score of 0.76 and 0.75, whereas Canada and Chile have the lowest energy efficiency score of 0.41 and 0.42. This paper discusses the ability of digitalization and energy consumer awareness trends in shaping the future energy demand based on SDG 7, emphasizing the importance of energy efficiency vision 2050 in policymaking for effective acquisition.
减少能源需求的政策应纳入新形成的经济模式、数字化和消费者意识趋势。因此，本研究分析了这三种趋势在2050年能源效率愿景下与可持续发展目标7的相互作用，对经合组织2005年至2017年的能源效率进行了测量，以实现这种纳入。在此背景下，通过与南亚国家的专家进行广泛磋商，确定了预计将塑造未来能源需求的四个新趋势，并预测了2050年的未来电力需求。结果表明，这些趋势对未来电力需求有着至关重要的影响，其影响程度超过了技术的经济潜力。因此，在最佳情况下，即“新趋势高效”情景下，与2050年南亚“基线”情景相比，最终能源需求将减少78%，而在“最坏情况”情景下，最终能源需求将增加35%。因此，奥地利和韩国的能源效率得分最高，分别为0.76和0.75，而加拿大和智利的能源效率得分最低，分别为0.41和0.42。本文基于可持续发展目标7，探讨了数字化和能源消费者意识趋势对未来能源需求的塑造能力，强调了2050年能源效率愿景在有效获取政策制定中的重要性。
