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一年后非洲的新冠疫情。

COVID in Africa, one year later.

机构信息

epidemiologist;

public health consultant.

出版信息

Epidemiol Prev. 2021 Nov-Dec;45(6):602-605. doi: 10.19191/EP21.6.143.

Abstract

This paper presents an update of last year analysis of COVID in sub-Sahara Africa (SSA). The number of confirmed cases and deaths has dramatically increased, partially driven by the expanded diagnostic capacity, but it is an unknown undercount of people infected: we are blind with respect to the real size of the pandemic. The aggregate numbers mask a substantial heterogeneity: South Africa accounts for almost half of the cases in the region; Ethiopia, the second top country in the ranking, follows from afar, with only 6% of reported cases. There are signs that the third wave of COVID, driven by the more transmissible Delta variant, is easing off.The concerns that the pandemic would have affected more severely the most vulnerable populations (refugees and internally displaced persons) have not been confirmed: there is no evidence of hospitals overwhelmed nor of high mortality in humanitarian settings, a pattern that has not found an explanation.As of now, only 1% of African has been vaccinated, a sign of vaccine inequity and of 'a catastrophic moral failure' of rich countries, which have secured a surplus of hundred million COVID vaccines that they cannot use.The combined effects of the pandemic and control measures have been particularly severe in SSA economies, where underemployment and job insecurity prevail. Reduced export of commodities, collapse of tourism and agriculture, decline of foreign investment, aid, and remittances have driven million Africans in extreme poverty. The international financial institutions have shifted their strategies from austerity to a strong package of grants and concessional loans to support poor countries, including those in SSA, to cope with the immediate consequences of the pandemic, under the lemma 'vaccine policy is the most important economic policy'.

摘要

本文更新了去年撒哈拉以南非洲(SSA)地区 COVID-19 分析。确诊病例和死亡人数大幅增加,部分原因是诊断能力扩大,但这是对受感染者的未知低估:我们对大流行的实际规模一无所知。总体数据掩盖了实质性的异质性:南非占该地区病例的近一半;埃塞俄比亚,排名第二的国家,远远落后,报告的病例仅占 6%。有迹象表明,由更具传染性的 Delta 变体驱动的第三波 COVID 正在缓解。人们担心大流行会更严重地影响最脆弱的人群(难民和国内流离失所者),但这一担忧并未得到证实:没有医院不堪重负的迹象,也没有人道主义环境中的高死亡率,这种模式尚未找到解释。截至目前,非洲只有 1%的人接种了疫苗,这表明疫苗分配不均,以及富裕国家“灾难性的道德失败”,它们已经获得了数亿支无法使用的 COVID 疫苗。大流行和控制措施的综合影响在 SSA 经济体中尤为严重,这些经济体普遍存在就业不足和工作不稳定的情况。商品出口减少、旅游业和农业崩溃、外国投资、援助和汇款下降,使数百万非洲人陷入极端贫困。国际金融机构已经将其战略从紧缩转向一揽子赠款和优惠贷款,以支持包括 SSA 在内的贫穷国家应对大流行的直接后果,其格言是“疫苗政策是最重要的经济政策”。

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