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纠正媒体中关于科学发现的统计错误信息:因果关系与相关性。

Correcting statistical misinformation about scientific findings in the media: Causation versus correlation.

机构信息

School of Psychological Science.

出版信息

J Exp Psychol Appl. 2022 Mar;28(1):1-9. doi: 10.1037/xap0000408. Epub 2022 Jan 10.

DOI:10.1037/xap0000408
PMID:35007097
Abstract

Although retractions significantly reduce the number of references people make to misinformation, retracted information nevertheless persists in memory, continuing to influence reasoning. One hundred and twenty-nine lay participants completed an adaptation on the traditional continued influence paradigm, which set out to identify whether it is possible to debunk a piece of common statistical misinformation: inappropriate causal inference based on a correlation. We hypothesized that participants in the correction condition would make fewer causal inferences (misinformation) and more correlational inferences (correction) than those in the no-correction condition. Additional secondary hypotheses were that the number of references made to the misinformation and correction would be moderated by the level of trust in science and scientists, and the amount of television that participants watch. Although the secondary hypotheses were not supported, the data strongly supported the primary hypotheses. This study provides evidence for the efficacy of corrections about misinformation where correlational evidence has been inappropriately reported as causal. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2022 APA, all rights reserved).

摘要

尽管撤回显著减少了人们对错误信息的引用次数,但这些信息仍然会留在记忆中,继续影响推理。129 名非专业参与者完成了一项传统的持续影响范式的改编,旨在确定是否可以揭穿一种常见的统计错误信息:基于相关性的不当因果推断。我们假设,在修正条件下的参与者做出的因果推断(错误信息)比在无修正条件下的参与者更少,做出的相关推断(修正)更多。额外的次要假设是,对错误信息和修正的引用数量会受到对科学和科学家的信任程度以及参与者观看电视的数量的调节。尽管次要假设没有得到支持,但数据强烈支持主要假设。这项研究为纠正错误信息提供了证据,在这些错误信息中,相关性证据被不当报告为因果关系。(PsycInfo 数据库记录(c)2022 APA,保留所有权利)。

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Can counterfactual explanations of AI systems' predictions skew lay users' causal intuitions about the world? If so, can we correct for that?人工智能系统预测的反事实解释会扭曲普通用户对世界的因果直觉吗?如果是这样,我们能对此加以纠正吗?
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