Clinical Research Service Center, the Affiliated Hospital of Guangdong Medical University, Zhanjiang, China.
Collaborative Innovation Engineering Technology Research Center of Clinical Medical Big Data Cloud Service in Medical Consortium of West Guangdong Province, Zhanjiang, China.
J Dev Behav Pediatr. 2022;43(5):e339-e346. doi: 10.1097/DBP.0000000000001049. Epub 2022 Jan 10.
The aim of this study was to analyze the secular trends of conduct disorder (CD) incidence in China from 1990 to 2019 under the joinpoint analysis and the age-period-cohort framework.
The sex-specific incidence rates of CD from 1990 to 2019 were extracted from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 database according to the age group. The joinpoint regression and the age-period-cohort model were conducted using the average annual percent changes and relative risks as size effects, respectively.
From 1990 to 2019, age-standardized rates (ASRs) of CD incidence showed an overall increasing trend in both sexes, and this variation trend was observed in almost all age groups. The annual sex-specific ASRs were lower in China than those worldwide but were rapidly growing. Age effects were the most significant risk factor for CD, with the highest risk in adolescents aged 10 to 14 years, followed by children aged 5 to 9 years, but a relatively lower risk in adolescents aged 15 to 19 years than in other age groups. However, period and cohort effects were not statistically significant.
CD incidence rates in China have been increasing in both sexes from 1990 to 2019. Further studies are necessary to explain the etiology of these increases and promote the early identification of individuals at risk for developing CD.
本研究旨在通过联合分析和年龄-时期-队列框架分析 1990 年至 2019 年中国品行障碍（CD）发病率的变化趋势。
根据年龄组，从 2019 年全球疾病负担研究数据库中提取了 1990 年至 2019 年 CD 的性别特异性发病率。使用平均年百分比变化和相对风险作为大小效应，分别进行联合分析和年龄-时期-队列模型分析。
1990 年至 2019 年，CD 发病率的年龄标准化率（ASR）在两性中均呈总体上升趋势，几乎所有年龄组均观察到这种变化趋势。中国的男女特定年龄 ASR 均低于全球水平，但呈快速增长趋势。年龄效应是 CD 的最主要危险因素，10 至 14 岁青少年的风险最高，其次是 5 至 9 岁儿童，但与其他年龄组相比，15 至 19 岁青少年的风险相对较低。然而，时期和队列效应不具有统计学意义。
1990 年至 2019 年，中国两性的 CD 发病率呈上升趋势。需要进一步研究来解释这些增长的病因，并促进对有发展为 CD 风险的个体的早期识别。
