Kim Yong-Kyun, Yoon Wan Chul, Lee Jaekyung, Poncelet Jean-Luc, Dolcemascolo Glenn, Sohn Hong-Gyoo
Ministry of Interior and Safety, Republic of Korea.
Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology, Republic of Korea.
Prog Disaster Sci. 2022 Jan;13:100214. doi: 10.1016/j.pdisas.2022.100214. Epub 2022 Jan 5.
COVID 19 is a still on-going fatal risk that affects the whole world. COVID-19 pandemic has been characterized as a systemic risk. Accordingly, this paper aims to identify the features of systemic risk of COVID-19 and draw policy implications for effective response. For this, we traced the COVID-19 related risk in Korea from January 2020 to August 2021 by utilizing the official data of the Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency. Analyzing the relationship between anticipated, emerging, amplified, and lingering risk and response measure through actual data, it was revealed that the risk flow model for cascading risk proposed by the author can be readily applied. In addition, through the analysis of actual response measures against the risks for 1 year and 8 months, the authors proposed a strategic response map against cascading pandemics. Five policy implication derived through this study can be extended for identifying strategic approach against cascading pandemics and for developing guidelines for effective preparedness, risk reduction, and resilience building.
新冠疫情仍是一种影响全球的致命风险，且仍在持续。新冠疫情已被视为一种系统性风险。因此，本文旨在识别新冠疫情系统性风险的特征，并得出有效应对的政策启示。为此，我们利用韩国疾病控制与预防机构的官方数据，追踪了2020年1月至2021年8月韩国境内与新冠疫情相关的风险。通过实际数据分析预期风险、新出现风险、放大风险和持续风险与应对措施之间的关系，结果表明作者提出的级联风险风险流模型可轻松应用。此外，通过对1年零8个月的实际风险应对措施进行分析，作者提出了应对级联大流行的战略应对图。本研究得出的五项政策启示可扩展用于确定应对级联大流行的战略方法，以及制定有效防范、降低风险和增强复原力的指导方针。
