Bhardwaj Mandeep, Kumar Pushp, Kumar Siddharth, Dagar Vishal, Kumar Ashish
Department of Economics, School of Business, Lovely Professional University, Jalandhar, Punjab, 144 411, India.
School of Humanities, Social Sciences, and Management, Indian Institute of Technology Bhubaneswar, Odisha, 752 050, India.
Environ Sci Pollut Res Int. 2022 May;29(21):31861-31885. doi: 10.1007/s11356-021-17994-2. Epub 2022 Jan 11.
The present study aims to examine the impact of climate change on wheat and rice yield in Punjab, India, during 1981-2017. The study employs fully modified ordinary least squares (FMOLS), dynamic ordinary least squares (DOLS), and pooled mean group (PMG) approaches. The Pedroni cointegration has established a long-run relationship of climate variables with rice and wheat crops. FMOLS and DOLS models show that minimum temperature has a positive effect on both wheat and rice. In contrast, the maximum temperature is found to be negatively contributing to both crops. Rainfall has a significant adverse impact on the production of wheat. In the study period, seasonal rainfall has been found detrimental for the production of wheat and rice crops, indicating that excess rainfall proved counterproductive. Moreover, the Dumitrescu-Hurlin causality test has revealed a unidirectional causality running from minimum temperature, rainfall, and maximum temperature for rice and wheat production. The findings of the study suggest that the government should invest in developing stress-tolerant varieties of wheat and rice, managing crop residuals to curb other environmental effects, and sustaining natural resources for ensuring food security.
本研究旨在考察1981 - 2017年期间气候变化对印度旁遮普邦小麦和水稻产量的影响。该研究采用了完全修正普通最小二乘法（FMOLS）、动态普通最小二乘法（DOLS）和混合平均组（PMG）方法。佩德龙协整检验确定了气候变量与水稻和小麦作物之间的长期关系。FMOLS和DOLS模型表明，最低温度对小麦和水稻均有正向影响。相反，最高温度对两种作物均有负面影响。降雨对小麦产量有显著的不利影响。在研究期间，季节性降雨对小麦和水稻作物的生产有害，这表明降雨过多适得其反。此外，杜米特雷斯库 - 赫尔林因果关系检验揭示了最低温度、降雨和最高温度对水稻和小麦生产存在单向因果关系。该研究结果表明，政府应投资培育耐胁迫的小麦和水稻品种，管理作物残茬以抑制其他环境影响，并维持自然资源以确保粮食安全。
