Jadoon Arshad Ullah, Zhao Zixiang, Wosene Gizachew, Wondim Desalegn, Yunxian Yan
School of Economics and Management Jilin Agricultural University Changchun City China.
School of Business and Management Jilin University Changchun Jilin Province China.
Food Sci Nutr. 2025 Sep 3;13(9):e70876. doi: 10.1002/fsn3.70876. eCollection 2025 Sep.
Environmental degradation is a cross-cutting issue that significantly hampers the productivity of the agriculture sector in Pakistan. The objective of this study is to investigate the impact of environmental degradation on agricultural productivity in Pakistan from 1973 to 2021. The study employed the Novel Dynamic Simulated Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NDS-ARDL) estimator as a data analysis technique to gauge the impact of environmental degradation (measured by CO) and other variables, including agricultural credit, quality seeds, fertilizers, and the availability of irrigation water, on agricultural productivity. The major finding of this study shows that the impact of CO on crop productivity is negative but insignificant in both the short and long run. However, water availability, quality of seeds used, credit used for agriculture, and fertilizer use have a positive and significant impact in both the long and short run. Productivity improves with increased credit disbursement, quality seeds, and irrigation water. Based on these findings, policymakers should prioritize ensuring the stable and reliable availability of irrigation water supplies, promoting certified high-quality seeds, expanding access to agricultural credits, discouraging ineffective land expansion, and planning for better land use to avoid the overuse of marginal lands, thereby enhancing crop productivity in Pakistan.
环境退化是一个贯穿各领域的问题，严重阻碍了巴基斯坦农业部门的生产力。本研究的目的是调查1973年至2021年期间环境退化对巴基斯坦农业生产力的影响。该研究采用新型动态模拟自回归分布滞后（NDS-ARDL）估计器作为数据分析技术，以评估环境退化（以一氧化碳衡量）以及其他变量，包括农业信贷、优质种子、化肥和灌溉用水的可获得性对农业生产力的影响。本研究的主要发现表明，一氧化碳对作物生产力的影响在短期和长期均为负面，但不显著。然而，水的可获得性、所用种子的质量、农业信贷的使用和化肥的使用在短期和长期均具有积极且显著的影响。生产力随着信贷发放、优质种子和灌溉用水的增加而提高。基于这些发现，政策制定者应优先确保灌溉用水供应的稳定可靠，推广认证的优质种子，扩大农业信贷获取渠道，抑制无效的土地扩张，并规划更好的土地利用方式以避免过度使用边际土地，从而提高巴基斯坦的作物生产力。
